Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 19

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Itabaiana		Botafogo PB

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.10	3.20
	2.08	2.95	3.3	Watch
	2.04	3.25	3.75
	2.11	3.23	3.48	Watch
	2	3	3.2
	2.04	3.13	3.43	Watch
	2.08	3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.55)	3.09 ↑ (3)	3.38 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
44%

Draw
29.2%

Botafogo PB
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

29.8%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

30.1%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Itabaiana's performance.

Botafogo PB has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo PB might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Itabaiana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo PB could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Itabaiana - Botafogo PB Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Itabaiana will win (votes: 8 - 80%). Botafogo PB will win (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Itabaiana: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Itabaiana will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson (G) 3. Betao (C) 9. Cleiton 8. Dyego 19. Everton Kanela 4. Gustavo Fagundes 2. Julio Henrique 11. Renatinho 5. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tito	21. Leandro Mathias (G) 16. Bull 11. Diego Tavares 31. Gustavo 17. Jonas Toro 15. Kayon 22. Leo Pereira 28. Lucas Candido 35. Octavio 20. Thallyson 3. Yan Souto (C)
Substitutes
16. Dudu 18. Elimar 14. Gustavo Cintra 15. Isaque 7. Leilson 12. Leo Souza (G) 22. Luan Silva 13. Lucao 20. Valdenilson 17. Vitinho 33. William (G)	30. Alves L. M. 77. Bastos R. 25. Caio Garcia 7. Dudu Hatamoto 34. Edilson (G) 12. Erick 14. Igor Morais 36. Italo 33. Julio Vaz 87. Lucas Couto 10. Nene
Coaches
Marcelo Chamusca	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Betao 🟨,
23', Lucas Candido 🟨,
45', Leo Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Jonas Toro ↓, Caio Garcia ↑,
58', Lucas Candido ↓, Bastos R. ↑,
60', Leandro Mathias 🟨,
63', Renatinho ↓, Leilson ↑,
72', Leo Pereira ↓, Erick ↑,
72', Yan Souto ↓, Julio Vaz ↑,
73', Ricardo Cerqueira ↓, Gustavo Cintra ↑,
73', Tito ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
76', Leilson 🟨,
78', Diego Tavares 🟨,
81', Diego Tavares ↓, Igor Morais ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Gustavo ⚽,
87', Betao ↓, Elimar ↑,
87', Julio Henrique ↓, Lucao ↑,
90+3', 0 - 2, Kayon ⚽,

Preview

Recent form of Itabaiana has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Botafogo PB is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
23.08.26	Maranhão - Itabaiana	4:1 ✺
16.08.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
09.08.26	Itabaiana - Caxias	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	Itabaiana - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLLTW
- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Serie C
22.08.26	Botafogo PB - Guarani	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Amazonas - Botafogo PB	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Botafogo PB - Santa Cruz Recife	2:2 ✺
26.07.26	Caxias - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
12.07.26	Botafogo PB - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3
Brazilian Serie C
30.06.25	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
24.03.24	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	0:1

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