Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 15

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Itapirense		Rio Preto

	1	X	2
	2.95	2.9	2.25
	3.05	2.98	2.22
	3.12	3.11	2.16
	3.17	3	2.25	Watch
	3	3.1	2.15
	3.02	3.43	2.18
	2.85	2.95	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.74)	3.07 ↓ (3.11)	2.23 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itapirense
29.9%

Draw
29.5%

Rio Preto
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

29.4%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

29.4%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itapirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Rio Preto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itapirense than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Preto than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Itapirense - Rio Preto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Marcos Henrique ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Rio Preto is Qualified for Paulista A3 (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Itapirense is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rio Preto is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Itapirense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Itapirense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SE Itapirense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.03.26	União Barbarense - Itapirense	1:0 ✺
11.03.26	Rio Branco de Americana - Itapirense	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	Itapirense - EC São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
04.03.26	Desportivo Brasil - Itapirense	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Itapirense - União São João	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLWT
- Rio Preto EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.03.26	Rio Preto - Desportivo Brasil	4:0 ✺
11.03.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Preto	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Rio Preto - XV de Jaú	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	Francana - Rio Preto	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Bandeirante - Rio Preto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
26.02.25	Rio Preto - Itapirense	0:0
03.02.24	Itapirense - Rio Preto	1:1

Itapirense - Rio Preto: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide