Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 29

Date: 22 September 2023, Friday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)


	Ituano		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3	3.3	Watch
	2.39	2.99	3.56
	2.3	2.8	3
	2.29	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.32	2.95	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.57)	2.97 ↓ (3.1)	3.27 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
40.1%

Draw
31.4%

Vitória Salvador
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

30.9%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

33.3%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Ituano aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	55.6%	22.2%

Ituano - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Pacheco 3. Rafael Pereira (C) 4. Marcel Scalese 6. Mario Sergio 5. Jose Aldo 8. Rafael Carvalheira 11. Helio Borges 10. Yann Rolim 7. Wesley Pombo 9. Matheus Cadorini	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 6. Edson Lucas 13. Camutanga 2. Railan 4. Wagner Leonardo 5. Matheus Trindade 8. Rodrigo Andrade 11. Osvaldo (C) 10. Matheuzinho 7. Mateus Goncalves 9. Leo Gamalho
Substitutes
20. Clemente K. 1. Deivity (G) 21. Emerson Urso 17. Felipe Saraiva 15. Frazan 13. Iury 16. Lucas Siqueira 18. Martha 22. Matheus Aluisio 14. Pedro J. 19. Quirino	18. Gege 22. Iury Castilho 3. Joao Victor 17. Jose Hugo 16. Leo Gomes 14. Marco Antonio 21. Rodrigues E. 12. Thiago Rodrigues (G) 19. Welder 20. Wellington Nem 15. Yan Souto
Coaches
Marcinho	Conde L.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Vitória could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ituano will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ituano: Bruno Xavier (Injury) Eduardo Person (Injury) Jonathan Vieira (Injury) Madison (Injury) Neto Berola (Injury) Thiaguinho (Injury)

There will not play in Vitória: Giovanni Augusto (Injury) Vicente (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ituano won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
14.09.23	Londrina - Ituano	2:2 ✺
08.09.23	Ituano - Vila Nova	1:2 ✺
30.08.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	2:0 ✺
25.08.23	Sport Recife - Ituano	1:2 ✺
19.08.23	Ituano - Criciúma	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TLLWW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie B
17.09.23	Vitória Salvador - Avaí	3:0 ✺
10.09.23	CRB Maceio - Vitória Salvador	6:0 ✺
01.09.23	Vitória Salvador - Mirassol	0:0 ✺
27.08.23	Atlético Goianiense - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
18.08.23	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.06.23	Vitória Salvador - Ituano	3:0

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