Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Ituano		Ypiranga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3	3.3
	1.92	3.05	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.28	3.94
	1.93	3.14	4.20	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.3
	1.93	3.1	3.88	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.89)	3.09 ↓ (3.35)	3.7 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
45.7%

Draw
29.6%

Ypiranga
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

26.6%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

23.2%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Ypiranga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ypiranga than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ypiranga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ituano - Ypiranga Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ituano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pegorari (G) 4. Carlao 5. Daniel 9. Gabriel Razera 6. Guilherme Dal Pian (C) 10. Leo Passos 3. Nathan Silva 7. Neto Berola 11. Ramon 2. Thassio 8. Thiago Moraes	40. Ze Carlos (C) 5. Charles Raphael 9. Cristiano 11. Felipe Marques 36. Igor Morais 14. Rian 22. Rian K. R. d. N. 87. Ricardo Bueno 7. Roger 3. Willian Gomes 43. Ze Mateus
Substitutes
13. Dija 16. Eduardo Diniz 17. Felipe Muranga 21. Fernandinho 20. Fernando Canesin 14. Grigor 22. Gustavo 18. Kaio Mendes 12. Vagner (G) 15. Victor Reis 19. Vinicius Popo 23. Ze Carlos	34. Arthur Vellasque (G) 19. Caique 8. Clayton 99. Danielzinho 32. Fabao 25. Gabriel Terra 79. Gabryel Martins 10. Jean Pyerre 2. Vitor Marinho
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Raul Cabral

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Felipe Marques ↓, Gabryel Martins ↑,
15', Rian K. R. d. N. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Ricardo Bueno ⚽,
36', Rian K. R. d. N. 🟨,
39', Thiago Moraes ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
45', Daniel 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gabryel Martins ↓, Vitor Marinho ↑,
46', Daniel ↓, Victor Reis ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Neto Berola (Pen),
60', Vitor Marinho 🟨,
64', Ricardo Bueno ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Neto Berola ⚽,
70', Gabriel Razera ↓, Fernando Canesin ↑,
70', Leo Passos ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
78', Neto Berola ↓, Felipe Muranga ↑,
80', Ramon 🟨,
81', Ze Mateus ↓, Caique ↑,
81', Cristiano ↓, Gabriel Terra ↑,
82', Willian Gomes 🟨,
85', Nathan Silva 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 10).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Ituano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
16.08.25	CS Alagoano - Ituano	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Ituano - Confiança	1:2 ✺
04.08.25	Ituano - Londrina	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Itabaiana - Ituano	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Ituano - Botafogo PB	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLWLL
- Ypiranga FC
Brazilian Serie C
18.08.25	Ypiranga - Botafogo PB	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Guarani - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Ypiranga - Caxias	0:1 ✺
26.07.25	Retrô Brasil - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Ypiranga - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
19.09.21	Ypiranga - Ituano	0:0
18.07.21	Ituano - Ypiranga	2:1
28.11.20	Ituano - Ypiranga	1:2
27.09.20	Ypiranga - Ituano	2:1

Ituano - Ypiranga: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide