Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Ituano		Londrina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	2.95	2.85
	2.68	2.92	2.52	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.63
	2.72	2.83	2.82	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.67	2.95	2.52	Watch
	2.32	3.06	2.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.31)	2.96 ↓ (3.02)	2.76 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
35.9%

Draw
31%

Londrina
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

30.1%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.8%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	71.4%	28.6%

Ituano - Londrina Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Londrina will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Londrina (1.81) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ituano (votes: 1 - 25%). Londrina (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vagner (G) 5. Bruno Silva (C) 10. Felipe Muranga 9. Gabriel Razera 3. Grigor 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 4. Matheus Mancini 7. Neto Berola 11. Ramon 2. Thassio 8. Thiago Moraes	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 14. Cedric 9. Eliel 11. Iago Teles 8. Lucas Marques (C) 6. Mauricio Junior 10. Robson Duarte 7. Vitinho 4. Wallace 3. Yago Lincoln 5. Ze Breno
Substitutes
18. Daniel 13. Dija 16. Eduardo Diniz 22. Gustavo 20. Kaio Mendes 15. Matheus Rocha 14. Nathan Silva 21. Osman 12. Pegorari (G) 19. Vinicius Popo 17. Walterson Silva 23. Ze Carlos	20. Caio Rafael 12. Elzo Neto (G) 16. Gustavo Santos 18. Joao Tavares 2. Joao Vitor 15. Marco Antonio 19. Quirino 22. Rikelmi 21. Thauan 13. Wellington
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Gabriel Razera ⚽, Felipe Muranga (A),
33', Felipe Muranga 🟨,
39', Iago Teles 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Cedric ↓, Thauan ↑,
56', Vitinho ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
58', Felipe Muranga ↓, Kaio Mendes ↑,
63', Gabriel Razera 🟨,
67', Robson Duarte ↓, Rikelmi ↑,
67', Eliel ↓, Quirino ↑,
74', Neto Berola ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
74', Gabriel Razera ↓, Osman ↑,
75', Thiago Moraes 🟨,
79', Lucas Marques ↓, Joao Tavares ↑,
84', 🟨,
85', Ramon ↓, Walterson Silva ↑,
85', Thiago Moraes ↓, Daniel ↑,
90+1', Thassio 🟨,
90+5', Joao Vitor 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 2.

Ituano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Londrina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
27.07.25	Itabaiana - Ituano	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Ituano - Botafogo PB	0:3 ✺
13.07.25	Guarani - Ituano	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Ituano - Retrô Brasil	2:0 ✺
29.06.25	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTWL
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.25	Londrina - CS Alagoano	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Londrina - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Botafogo PB - Londrina	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Londrina - Guarani	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Retrô Brasil - Londrina	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
14.09.23	Londrina - Ituano	2:2
27.05.23	Ituano - Londrina	3:1
28.10.22	Londrina - Ituano	0:2
16.07.22	Ituano - Londrina	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
25.10.20	Londrina - Ituano	1:0
23.08.20	Ituano - Londrina	1:1

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