Match Info

J1 League - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
China	K-Ball
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Japan	DAZN Japan


	JEF United Chiba		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.55	3.10	2.70
	2.52	3.1	2.72	Watch
	2.66	3.45	2.84
	2.59	3.25	2.79	Watch
	2.6	3.25	2.8
	2.77	3.25	2.61	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.76)	3.23 ↓ (3.36)	2.73 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JEF United Chiba
36.3%

Draw
29.2%

V-Varen Nagasaki
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

28.2%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

28.3%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JEF United Chiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	83.3%	16.7%

JEF United Chiba - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Suarez J. (C) 39. Ishio R. 2. Nduka B. 28. Kawano T. 67. Hidaka M. 18. Sugiyama N. 6. Eduardo 41. Yasui T. 8. Tsukui T. 99. Erison 29. Yamura K.	1. Goto M. (G) 50. Shindo R. 29. Arai I. 31. Doi K. 88. Masuyama A. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 24. Yamada R. 23. Yoneda S. 10. Matheus Jesus 41. Hasegawa M. 9. Thiago
Substitutes
9. Goya H. 37. Himeno M. 42. Issaka Z. 5. Kobayashi Y. 13. Suzuki D. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 4. Taguchi T. 7. Tanaka K. 11. Yonekura K.	21. Diego Pituca 6. Egawa Y. 13. Hatano G. (G) 99. Jonathan Junior 34. Matsumoto T. 25. Ominami T. 22. Onaga H. 18. Yamasaki R. 7. Yasuda K.
Coaches
Kobayashi Y.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Thiago (Own goal),
13', Thiago 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Yamada R. ↓, Yasuda K. ↑,
53', Erison 🟨,
56', Ishio R. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
61', Shindo R. ↓, Ominami T. ↑,
65', Doi K. ↓, Egawa Y. ↑,
69', Sugiyama N. ↓, Issaka Z. ↑,
69', Erison ↓, Goya H. ↑,
74', Thiago ↓, Jonathan Junior ↑,
79', Yasui T. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
79', Tsukui T. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
86', Masuyama A. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
90+2', Hidaka M. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
90+2', Eduardo 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Yasuda K. ⚽, Yamaguchi H. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 0.

JEF United is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

V-Varen Nagasaki has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, JEF United has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for JEF United: Iida T. (Hamstring Injury) Kida H. (Broken Leg) Ueda Y. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness) Radotic L. (Inactive) Takahata K. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, JEF United has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:23 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for JEF United against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 11:14 goals (averaging 1.1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3
20	Chiba	4	0	0	4	2:13	-11	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JEF United Chiba
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Júbilo Iwata - JEF United Chiba	4:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Kamatamare Sanuki - JEF United Chiba	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLTW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Gainare Tottori - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Kochi United - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
04.10.25	JEF United Chiba - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:2
25.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	1:0
03.11.24	JEF United Chiba - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2
25.05.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	1:0
11.11.23	JEF United Chiba - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3
18.02.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	0:1
03.09.22	JEF United Chiba - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1

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