Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Gishamer S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Jagiellonia Białystok		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.35
	2.88	3.2	2.42
	2.98	3.3	2.52
	2.93	3.28	2.49	Watch
	2.88	3	2.4
	3.02	3.28	2.53
	3	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (3.24)	3.23 ↓ (3.52)	2.45 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
32%

Draw
29.3%

Fiorentina
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

26.9%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

25.9%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fiorentina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29%	16.1%	54.8%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 9 - 30%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 16 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 35.4% – 71.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Jagiellonia (1.59) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Fiorentina (1.70) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Fiorentina (1.59) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 6 - 27.3%). Fiorentina (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 31. Flach L. 86. Mazurek B. 72. Jozwiak K. 14. Bazdar S. 11. Imaz J. (C)	1. Lezzerini L. (G) 29. Fortini N. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 21. Gosens R. 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.
Substitutes
66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 53. Krasiewicz B. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.	62. Balbo L. 68. Bertolini G. 63. Bonanno P. 61. Braschi R. 64. Deli L. 44. Fagioli N. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 51. Magalotti M. (G) 65. Parisi F. 5. Pongracic M. 67. Sadotti E.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Fazzini J. 🟨,
41', Mandragora R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 0 - 1, Ranieri L. ⚽, Fazzini J. (A),
62', Flach L. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Mandragora R. ⚽,
68', Ranieri L. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
68', Harrison J. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
68', Jozwiak K. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
77', Lezzerini L. 🟨,
79', Wdowik B. 🟨,
81', 0 - 3, Piccoli R. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Ndour C. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
90+1', Mazurek B. ↓, Kozlowski E. ↑,
90+1', Bazdar S. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Jagiellonia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fiorentina is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Konstantopoulos A. (Inactive) Lozano S. (Inactive) Montoia G. (Inactive) Nahuel M. (Inactive) Pululu A. (Red Card) Romanczuk T. (Yellow Cards) Szmyt K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Balbo L. (Inactive) Brescianini M. (Inactive) Christensen O. (Inactive) Gudmundsson A. (Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Rugani D. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Stojinovic D. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.01.26	Maribor - Jagiellonia Białystok	Canceled ✺
23.01.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Čukarički	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWW?W
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fiorentina - Torino	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
27.01.26	Fiorentina - Como	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.01.26	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTLLL

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