Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gishamer S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	07:00	Paramount+, Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Belgium	21:00	VOOsport World 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 5
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	22:00	Sport 2
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport 255, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	14:00	Disney+
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 6
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Sport 4
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sports 2
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+
Vietnam	03:00	On Golf, ON Plus
International	20:00	VIX App


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.35
	2.88	3.2	2.42
	2.98	3.3	2.52
	2.93	3.28	2.49	Watch
	2.88	3	2.4
	3.02	3.28	2.53
	3	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (3.24)	3.23 ↓ (3.52)	2.45 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
32%

Draw
29.3%

Fiorentina
38.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.2%

26.9%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

26.4%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fiorentina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29%	16.1%	54.8%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 9 - 30%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 16 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 35.4% – 71.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Jagiellonia (1.59) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Fiorentina (1.70) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Fiorentina (1.59) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 6 - 27.3%). Fiorentina (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 31. Flach L. 86. Mazurek B. 72. Jozwiak K. 14. Bazdar S. 11. Imaz J. (C)	1. Lezzerini L. (G) 29. Fortini N. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 21. Gosens R. 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.
Substitutes
66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 53. Krasiewicz B. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.	62. Balbo L. 68. Bertolini G. 63. Bonanno P. 61. Braschi R. 64. Deli L. 44. Fagioli N. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 51. Magalotti M. (G) 65. Parisi F. 5. Pongracic M. 67. Sadotti E.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Fazzini J. 🟨,
41', Mandragora R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 0 - 1, Ranieri L. ⚽, Fazzini J. (A),
62', Flach L. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Mandragora R. ⚽,
68', Ranieri L. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
68', Harrison J. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
68', Jozwiak K. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
77', Lezzerini L. 🟨,
79', Wdowik B. 🟨,
81', 0 - 3, Piccoli R. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Ndour C. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
90+1', Mazurek B. ↓, Kozlowski E. ↑,
90+1', Bazdar S. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Jagiellonia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fiorentina is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Konstantopoulos A. (Inactive) Lozano S. (Inactive) Montoia G. (Inactive) Nahuel M. (Inactive) Pululu A. (Red Card) Romanczuk T. (Yellow Cards) Szmyt K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Balbo L. (Inactive) Brescianini M. (Inactive) Christensen O. (Inactive) Gudmundsson A. (Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Rugani D. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Stojinovic D. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.01.26	Maribor - Jagiellonia Białystok	Canceled ✺
23.01.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Čukarički	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWW?W
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fiorentina - Torino	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
27.01.26	Fiorentina - Como	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.01.26	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTLLL

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