Match Info

Serie A - Round 22

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3, Nova Sports Prime
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Indonesia	ANTV, Vidio
Iraq	Al Rabiaa Sport 2
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tanzania	ZBC 2 Tanzania
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Fiorentina		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.55	4.45	Watch
	1.84	3.51	4.95
	1.8	3.54	4.77	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.5
	1.81	3.69	4.85
	1.8	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.68)	3.51 ↓ (3.8)	4.72 ↓ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
52.7%

Draw
27.1%

Cagliari
20.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.6%

25%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

24.3%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.1%	12.8%	5.1%

Fiorentina - Cagliari Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH +0.5 - Cagliari (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Fiorentina (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (30 of 36 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.15% – 95.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Cagliari (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 19. Solomon M. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.	1. Caprile E. (G) 32. Pedro J. 26. Mina Y. (C) 6. Luperto S. 2. Palestra M. 8. Adopo M. 10. Gaetano G. 4. Mazzitelli L. 33. Obert A. 9. Kilicsoy S. 94. Esposito Se.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 17. Harrison J. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 6. Ranieri L.	29. Borrelli G. 21. Cavuoti N. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 22. Dossena A. 3. Idrissi R. 77. Luvumbo Z. 30. Pavoletti L. 16. Prati M. 15. Rodriguez J. 12. Sherri A. (G) 25. Sulemana I. 37. Trepy Y. 28. Zappa G.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Kilicsoy S. ⚽, Palestra M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mandragora R. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
47', 0 - 2, Palestra M. ⚽, Esposito Se. (A),
56', Pongracic M. 🟨,
59', Ndour C. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
59', Gosens R. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
63', Caprile E. 🟨,
64', Esposito Se. ↓, Sulemana I. ↑,
71', Kilicsoy S. ↓, Borrelli G. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Brescianini M. ⚽, Dodo (A),
80', Obert A. ↓, Idrissi R. ↑,
80', Mazzitelli L. ↓, Prati M. ↑,
81', Palestra M. ↓, Zappa G. ↑,
83', Solomon M. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
85', Mina Y. 🟨,
87', Pedro J. 🟨,
90+1', Comuzzo P. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 17 and 15)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Fiorentina is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Parisi F. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Cagliari: Belotti A. (Knee Injury) Deiola A. (Thigh Injury) Di Pardo A. (Calf Injury) Felici M. (Knee Injury) Folorunsho M. (Knee Injury) Liteta J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Kean M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	6:7	-1	13
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	8:17	-9	4

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Cagliari: 0.32% Fiorentina: 0.25%

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.61%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
18.01.26	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Fiorentina - Milan	1:1 ✺
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fiorentina - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTTWL
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
17.01.26	Cagliari - Juventus	1:0 ✺
12.01.26	Genoa - Cagliari	3:0 ✺
08.01.26	Cremonese - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Torino - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
24.08.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1
23.04.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:2
08.12.24	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1:0
23.05.24	Cagliari - Fiorentina	2:3
02.10.23	Fiorentina - Cagliari	3:0
23.01.22	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1
24.10.21	Fiorentina - Cagliari	3:0

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