Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Polonia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.00	4.40
	1.60	3.95	4.20
	1.5	4.07	5
	1.53	4.18	5.1
	1.44	3.9	4.9
	1.58	4.4	4.62	Watch
	1.67	3.95	3.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)	4.06 ↑ (3.95)	4.56 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
58.1%

Draw
22.2%

Polonia Warsaw
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

22.6%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

22.9%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Polonia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perchel M. (G) 27. Conceicao R. 14. Finndell H. 11. Imaz J. (C) 72. Jozwiak K. 4. Kobayashi Y. 21. Lozano S. 2. Polak C. 30. Sow O. 7. Szmyt K. 5. Vital B.	1. Ravas H. (G) 6. Gnaase D. (C) 97. Janasik P. 27. Kowalczyk S. 36. Makowski T. 29. Marcjanik M. 20. Olafsson D. 22. Olszewski P. 94. Paszkowski J. 26. Tabara K. 7. Vega D.
Substitutes
10. Agbonifo J. 32. Cirkovic A. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 68. Duchnowski A. 19. Klynge A. 44. Konstantopoulos A. 85. Kozlowski E. 61. Krasiewicz B. 70. Kucharski J. 90. Kuczynski M. 23. Montoia G. 62. Pankiewicz S. 58. Pawelczyk O. 89. Polkowski D. 67. Rabiczko J. (G) 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Sylla Y. 20. Wdowik B. 65. Wolosik J. 80. Zalewski Z. 56. Ziarek A.	17. Dadok R. 14. Gorzedowski M. 71. Jelen M. (G) 9. Kostorz K. 10. Mroz M. 72. Sandach A. (G) 23. Skrabb S. 24. Terpilowski E. 19. Vasin N. 8. Wojciechowski O. 18. Ziolkowski K.

Key Events of the Match

(1 - 2)

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Jagiellonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Jagiellonia carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Jagiellonia has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:6 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jagiellonia against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 53.43%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Club Friendly
29.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.09.26	Wisła Kraków - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Śląsk Wrocław	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLW
- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
19.09.26	Polonia Warsaw - Chrobry Głogów	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Polonia Warsaw - Polonia Bytom	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Stal Rzeszów - Polonia Warsaw	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
02.09.26	Polkowice - Polonia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
29.08.26	Polonia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
07.07.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw	0:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.13	Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw	2:0
15.09.12	Polonia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1
12.03.12	Polonia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	4:1

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