Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer)

Referee: Teuben S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN Extra


	Jong AZ Alkmaar		ADO Den Haag

	1	X	2
	6	5	1.41	Watch
	5.5	4.75	1.43
	6.4	4.95	1.41
	6.74	5.4	1.4
	13.89	7.10	1.17	Watch
	6.03	4.8	1.43	Watch
	5.6	4.7	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.17 ↑ (3.42)	5.24 ↑ (4)	1.38 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong AZ Alkmaar
13.2%

Draw
18.1%

ADO Den Haag
68.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27%

23.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

22.5%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

ADO Den Haag has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting ADO Den Haag's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jong AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADO Den Haag than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for ADO Den Haag, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Den Haag (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Den Haag (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: ADO Den Haag will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Den Haag (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zeggen K. (G) 2. Zwart J. 3. Menu M. 4. van Duijl B. 5. Esajas J. 6. Twisk N. 8. Boogaard K. 7. van der Klaauw D. 10. van den Ban Y. 11. Bouziane W. 9. van Duijn S.	1. Nikiema K. (G) 2. van der Sloot S. 45. Tomas D. 4. Waem M. 18. Sylla S. 25. Kilo J. 8. Vlak J. (C) 27. Thomas N. 11. Rottier E. 26. de Ruijter I. 23. Bal J.
Substitutes
18. de Wit H. 14. Hamdi Y. 12. Inge K. 20. Ouaziz A. 23. Schilder K. (G) 16. Schipper J. (G) 19. Smits A. 17. Toppenberg K. 15. van Ouytsel K.	35. Bergtop S. 30. Brandt J. 16. de Bruin F. 15. Hokke M. 14. Jimenez M. . Kramer C. (G) 5. Kreekels M. 24. Lejoly A. (G) 21. Peupion C. 19. Reischl L. 49. Silva-Richards R. 7. van Mieghem D.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Peter R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Menu M. 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Rottier E. ⚽, Vlak J. (A),
19', Thomas N. ↓, Peupion C. ↑,
20', Bal J. 🟨,
27', de Ruijter I. ↓, Reischl L. ↑,
34', Sylla S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Bal J. ↓, van Mieghem D. ↑,
46', Sylla S. ↓, Kreekels M. ↑,
46', Bouziane W. ↓, Smits A. ↑,
61', Boogaard K. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, van Mieghem D. ⚽, Rottier E. (A),
66', van der Klaauw D. ↓, Toppenberg K. ↑,
72', 0 - 3, Reischl L. ⚽, Kreekels M. (A),
77', van den Ban Y. ↓, Ouaziz A. ↑,
77', Boogaard K. ↓, Hamdi Y. ↑,
77', Rottier E. ↓, Jimenez M. ↑,
81', Zwart J. ↓, Inge K. ↑,
90+2', Inge K. 🟨,
90+4', 0 - 4, Peupion C. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 1.

Recent performances by Jong AZ have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Den Haag is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jong AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Den Haag is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Jong AZ: Budko B. (International duty) Natali A. (International duty) Smit K. (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Jong AZ: Daal R. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1.5:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jong AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

ADO Den Haag - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.91%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.09.25	Jong Utrecht - Jong AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
26.09.25	Den Bosch - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
22.09.25	Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap	1:3 ✺
15.09.25	Dordrecht - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Vitesse	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWLTW
- ADO Den Haag
Dutch Eerste Divisie
29.09.25	ADO Den Haag - FC Oss	5:1 ✺
26.09.25	Waalwijk - ADO Den Haag	1:3 ✺
19.09.25	ADO Den Haag - Almere City	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Jong Ajax - ADO Den Haag	1:3 ✺
12.09.25	FC Eindhoven - ADO Den Haag	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
11.03.25	ADO Den Haag - Jong AZ Alkmaar	0:3
22.11.24	Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag	3:3
23.12.23	Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag	1:2
03.09.23	ADO Den Haag - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:1
19.05.23	Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag	0:2
09.09.22	ADO Den Haag - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:2
15.04.22	Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag	0:1

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