Match Info

Date: 12 September 2022, Monday

Location: AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer)

Referee: Timmer L. (Ned)


	Jong AZ Alkmaar		Zwolle

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.5	1.5	Watch
	5.5	4.75	1.44
	5.75	4.5	1.47
	5.6	4.6	1.44
	6.32	4.9	1.5
	6	4.2	1.44	Watch
	5.35	4.5	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.86 ↑ (4.2)	4.56 ↑ (3.75)	1.47 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong AZ Alkmaar
16%

Draw
20.5%

Zwolle
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

24.4%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

25.4%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Zwolle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zwolle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jong AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zwolle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.1%	15.6%	56.2%

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 9 - 28.1%). Zwolle will win (votes: 18 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 15.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zwolle: 39.1% – 73.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).

Jong AZ is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Zwolle in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Jong AZ could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Zwolle is a favorite.

There will not play in Zwolle: Kersten S. (Knee Injury) Lagsir S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Zwolle: Kastaneer G. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.09.22	ADO Den Haag - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
05.09.22	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Dordrecht	3:1 ✺
26.08.22	FC Eindhoven - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
22.08.22	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Almere City	3:2 ✺
12.08.22	Helmond Sport - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWLWW
- PEC Zwolle
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.09.22	Zwolle - Willem II	2:2 ✺
02.09.22	Den Bosch - Zwolle	1:2 ✺
26.08.22	Zwolle - Jong PSV	4:2 ✺
21.08.22	VVV-Venlo - Zwolle	0:4 ✺
12.08.22	Telstar - Zwolle	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWWWW

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