Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Belence P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Juventude		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.5
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.25	3.13	3.79
	2.19	3.11	3.67	Watch
	2.12	3.36	3.54	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.04)	3.14 ↓ (3.15)	3.61 ↓ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
43.4%

Draw
30.3%

Mirassol
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

29.8%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

25.7%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Juventude - Mirassol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 2. Ewerthon 23. Abner 4. Angel W. 6. Felipinho 8. Giraldo D. 16. Jadson (C) 20. Jean Carlos 97. Enio 19. Gabriel Taliari 27. Batalla E.	23. Alex Muralha (G) 20. Daniel Borges 34. Joao Victor 3. Jemmes 6. Reinaldo 25. Neto Moura 41. Yago Felipe 8. Danielzinho (C) 17. Cristian Renato 77. Iury Castilho 70. Daniel Fabricio
Substitutes
3. Adriano Martins 28. Alan Ruschel 88. Davi Goes 9. Gilberto 11. Giovanny 44. Mandaca 12. Marcao (G) 47. Marcos Paulo 10. Nene 93. Reginaldo 34. Rodrigo Sam 98. Vitor Pernambuco	10. Chico Kim 29. Clayson 21. Jose Aldo 45. Leonan Santos 99. Maceio 18. Matheus Bianqui 5. Roni 22. Walter (G)
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', Felipinho 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Enio ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Iury Castilho ⚽, Edson Carioca (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Batalla E. ⚽, Gabriel Taliari (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Iury Castilho ↓, Cristian Renato ↑,
54', Angel W. 🟨,
57', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Gilberto ↑,
58', Batalla E. ↓, Vitor Pernambuco ↑,
58', Jean Carlos ↓, Mandaca ↑,
64', Yago Felipe ↓, Daniel Fabricio ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Reinaldo (Pen),
74', Negueba ↓, Clayson ↑,
79', Giraldo D. ↓, Nene ↑,
81', Neto Moura ↓, Jose Aldo ↑,
82', Edson Carioca ↓, Maceio ↑,
83', Alex Muralha 🟨,
85', Jose Aldo 🟨,
86', Enio ↓, Giovanny ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Mirassol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Juventude will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Juventude: Caique Goncalves (Knee Injury) Gabriel Taliari (Ankle Injury) Giraldo D. (Head Injury) Peixoto (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Luiz Otavio (Injury) Matheus Sales (Injury) Ze Vitor (Injury)

There are questionable in Juventude: Cipriano (Hamstring Injury) Rodrigo Sam (Pelvis Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: David Braz (Injury) Gabriel (Injury) Leo Gamalho (Injury) Rafa Silva (Inactive)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Juventude won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Juventude won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
16.04.25	Flamengo - Juventude	6:0 ✺
12.04.25	Juventude - Ceará	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
01.03.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWL
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
16.04.25	Mirassol - Grêmio	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Bahia - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Mirassol - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.25	Corinthians - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.08.23	Mirassol - Juventude	0:1
13.05.23	Juventude - Mirassol	0:1

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