Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	18:00	DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Ehime

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.40	3.50
	1.96	3.30	3.30	Watch
	1.90	3.55	3.86
	2.05	3.56	3.33	Watch
	1.86	3.50	3.70
	2.04	3.56	3.35	Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (1.96)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)	3.5 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
47.3%

Draw
26.4%

Ehime
26.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.7%

26.7%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

27.7%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ehime has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ehime than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Kagoshima United - Ehime Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Sakata D. (G) 35. Egawa G. (C) 5. Yamada Y. 36. Ikeda J. 44. Aoki Y. 7. Tanaka W. 14. Yoshio K. 8. Fujimura K. 2. Saga R. 22. Takahashi A. 9. Arita R.	36. Tsuji S. (G) 5. Kuroishi T. (C) 50. Sugiyama K. 37. Ishio R. 8. Kamimura S. 18. Shibata T. 13. Yamashita Y. 23. Miyamoto K. 49. Abe R. 17. Tamura S. 38. Hino S.
Substitutes
20. Endo M. 11. Fukuda M. 19. Inaba S. 99. Juanma Delgado 21. Kawakami K. (G) 18. Kawamura K. 27. Kawashima K. 16. Muramatsu K. 55. Nakayama K.	9. Fujimoto Y. 3. Fukushima H. 44. Hayashi M. 16. Hosoya K. 99. Kabayama R. 28. Kozakai A. 45. Makiguchi K. (G) 39. Muto H. 22. Takemoto Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Takahashi A. ⚽, Egawa G. (A),
42', 2 - 0, Takahashi A. ⚽, Yoshio K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Miyamoto K. ↓, Hayashi M. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, Takahashi A. ⚽,
57', Yamashita Y. ↓, Kabayama R. ↑,
57', Shibata T. ↓, Fukushima H. ↑,
60', 3 - 1, Tamura S. ⚽,
63', 4 - 1, Yamada Y. ⚽, Tanaka W. (A),
65', 4 - 2, Hino S. ⚽,
70', Tanaka W. ↓, Endo M. ↑,
70', Takahashi A. ↓, Kawamura K. ↑,
70', Tamura S. ↓, Fujimoto Y. ↑,
76', Arita R. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
77', Yoshio K. ↓, Inaba S. ↑,
90+4', Saga R. ↓, Kawashima K. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - J2 League and 1st in the Promotion - J2 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 2.

Kagoshima United has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ehime is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kagoshima United may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Kagoshima United holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Kagoshima United has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:8 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kagoshima United against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:5 goals (averaging 2.3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kagoshima Utd	13	9	2	2	27:16	11	29
2	Ehime	13	8	2	3	30:19	11	26

Last Results with these Odds

Kagoshima United - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 45.7%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Ehime - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 27.56%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
11.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kagoshima United	2:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
04.10.26	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWTW
- Ehime FC
Japan J3 League
11.10.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Ehime	0:2 ✺
03.10.26	Ehime - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Ehime - Tokyo	0:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Ryūkyū - Ehime	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ehime - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
19.10.24	Kagoshima United - Ehime	4:0
13.04.24	Ehime - Kagoshima United	2:2
Japan J3 League
23.09.23	Ehime - Kagoshima United	0:2
23.07.23	Kagoshima United - Ehime	1:2
30.10.22	Kagoshima United - Ehime	0:1
25.06.22	Ehime - Kagoshima United	1:0
Japan J2 League
17.08.19	Kagoshima United - Ehime	4:2

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