Match Info

Emperors Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)


	Cerezo Osaka		Kagoshima United

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	5.25
	1.35	4.50	6.75
	1.42	4.4	6.2
	1.46	4.68	6.69
	1.46	4.6	6.1	Watch
	1.41	4.55	6.55
	1.44	4.4	6.33
	1.42	4.4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.51)	4.5 ↑ (4.02)	6.23 ↑ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
64.8%

Draw
20.5%

Kagoshima United
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

22.5%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

21.9%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cerezo Osaka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Cerezo Osaka - Kagoshima United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Kagoshima United will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Abe K. (G) 77. Fernandes L. 15. Hernandez J. 4. Inoue R. 8. Kagawa S. 2. Nakamura T. 28. Okazawa K. 19. Sabbag P. 17. Sakata R. 97. Takahashi T. 7. Uejo S.	21. Kawakami K. (G) 20. Endo M. 8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 27. Kawashima K. 73. Kim M. 16. Muramatsu K. 13. Nagamine Y. 55. Nakayama K. 22. Takahashi A. 39. Toyama T.
Substitutes
27. Cools D. 36. Irvine J. 41. Komi Y. 45. Nagasoe K. 23. Nakamura K. (G) 6. Noborizato K. 16. Okuda H. 10. Tanaka S. 14. Yokoyama Y.	9. Arita R. 35. Egawa G. 37. Kawakami A. 18. Kawamura K. 1. Kumakura T. (G) 6. Satsukawa A. 10. Take S. 7. Tanaka W. 77. Thales

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Fernandes L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Kawashima K. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
81', 2 - 0, Sakata R. ⚽,
81', Nakayama K. ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
81', Nagamine Y. ↓, Satsukawa A. ↑,
84', Okazawa K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
84', Uejo S. ↓, Nagasoe K. ↑,

Preview

Cerezo Osaka has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kagoshima United is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Kagoshima United may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Cerezo Osaka for this game.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Fujieda MYFC - Cerezo Osaka	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	6:1 ✺
06.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
02.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLTW
- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
04.10.26	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Kagoshima United	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Kagoshima United - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTWWW

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