Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Kashiwa Reysol		Kashima Antlers

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.4	2.57	Watch
	2.58	3.25	2.58
	2.6	3.53	2.84
	2.59	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.63
	2.58	3.35	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.17)	3.38 ↑ (3.37)	2.64 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashiwa Reysol
36.6%

Draw
27.8%

Kashima Antlers
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.1%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

30.1%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kashiwa Reysol's form might have worsened.

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kashima Antlers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kashiwa Reysol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kashima Antlers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Kashiwa will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Kashima will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Kashima (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Nagai K. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. (C) 2. Mitsumaru H. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 21. Konishi Y. 39. Nakagawa N. 14. Okubo T. 8. Koizumi Y. 16. Yuruki K. 9. Hosoya M.	1. Hayakawa T. (G) 22. Nono K. 55. Ueda N. (C) 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 2. Anzai K. 71. Araki R. 14. Higuchi Y. 6. Misao K. 27. Matsumura Y. 9. Leo Ceara 40. Suzuki Y.
Substitutes
88. Baba S. 40. Harakawa R. 18. Kakita Y. 15. Komi Y. 46. Matsumoto K. (G) 20. Segawa Y. 26. Sugioka D. 28. Toshima S. 87. Yamauchi H.	77. Cavric A. 13. Chinen K. 17. Elber 24. Hayashu H. 29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 19. Morooka S. 7. Ogawa R. 10. Shibasaki G. 23. Tsukui K.
Coaches
Rodriguez R.	Oniki T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Mitsumaru H. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Nono K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mitsumaru H. ↓, Sugioka D. ↑,
49', Anzai K. 🟨,
63', Okubo T. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
67', Araki R. ↓, Morooka S. ↑,
68', Nono K. 🟨,
69', Koizumi Y. 🟨,
79', Matsumura Y. ↓, Hayashu H. ↑,
79', Higuchi Y. ↓, Chinen K. ↑,
79', Anzai K. ↓, Ogawa R. ↑,
79', Koizumi Y. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
84', Leo Ceara ↓, Tsukui K. ↑,
89', Tsukui K. 🟥,
90', Hosoya M. ↓, Kakita Y. ↑,
90+1', Yuruki K. ↓, Yamauchi H. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 0.

In recent matches, Kashiwa has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kashima is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kashiwa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Kashiwa: Kubo T. (Red Card) Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Watai M. (Knee Injury) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Kashima: Koike R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 25:35. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashiwa won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.5:1.8).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashima Antlers: 11.98% Kashiwa Reysol: 11.12%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10:4	6	12
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11:6	5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.56%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
19.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kashiwa Reysol	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWW
- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
18.04.26	Kashima Antlers - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
22.03.26	Kashima Antlers - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0
20.07.25	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	3:2
08.03.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:3
21.09.24	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0
06.05.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:2
11.11.23	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0

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