Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Zhestar Stadium (Aktau)

Referee: Gorda D. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kaspiy Aktau		Yelimay Semey

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.40	1.93
	3.2	3.5	1.98	Watch
	3.15	3.67	2.02
	3.46	3.7	1.89	Watch
	3.1	3.6	1.97
	3.32	3.94	1.94	Watch
	3.15	3.5	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (3.13)	3.62 ↑ (3.25)	1.95 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaspiy Aktau
28.2%

Draw
25.2%

Yelimay Semey
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

28.5%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

28.3%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Yelimay Semey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Yelimay Semey, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Kaspiy Aktau - Yelimay Semey Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 27. Nechayev D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 67. Kalmyrza M. 21. Aripov D. 17. Klimovich V. 15. Epton D. 11. Ndombasi N. 26. Sedko P. 93. Sylla K.	32. Konovalov I. (G) 20. Ashirbek A. 26. Tanasijevic S. 3. Higor Gabriel 15. Mittendorfer M. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 77. Placca F. 23. Ilic H. 44. Tyulyubay A. 10. Payruz Z. 11. Sviridov I.
Substitutes
49. Andrin Y. (G) 8. Armenov A. 29. Bekmyrza A. 55. Elemes N. 7. Kabylan B. 60. Kaldybay B. (G) 18. Kucheriavyi M. 23. Nabikhanov A. 13. Serikbay M. 10. Umaev I. 47. Usenov D.	2. Adambayev A. 88. Baygaliev A. 5. Belancic M. 89. China 7. Murtazaev R. 14. Palacio D. 9. Soto R. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 19. Zhaksylykov A.
Coaches
Shoytymov E.	Karpovich A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', Tanasijevic S. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Sedko P. (Penalty Awarded),
13', Sedko P. 🟨,
35', Mittendorfer M. 🟨,
40', 🟨,
45', Konovalov I. 🟨,
45+3', 2 - 0, Sedko P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Epton D. 🟨,
50', 🟨,
57', Payruz Z. ↓, Palacio D. ↑,
57', Sviridov I. ↓, Soto R. ↑,
61', Ashirbek A. 🟨,
64', Placca F. ↓, Murtazaev R. ↑,
65', Ashirbek A. ↓, Zhaksylykov A. ↑,
68', Sylla K. ↓, Usenov D. ↑,
73', Kalmyrza M. ↓, Bekmyrza A. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Zhaksylykov A. ⚽, Tanasijevic S. (A),
84', Ndombasi N. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
85', Sedko P. ↓, Serikbay M. ↑,
85', Aripov D. ↓, Elemes N. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Murtazaev R. ⚽,
90+5', Murtazaev R. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 6).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Yelimay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Yelimay is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kaspiy won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
08.08.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	3:2 ✺
26.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhenis	3:2 ✺
18.07.26	Kaisar - Kaspiy Aktau	1:1 ✺
11.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ordabasy	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 TLWTW
- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
09.08.26	Yelimay Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	3:1 ✺
02.08.26	Zhenis - Yelimay Semey	0:0 ✺
26.07.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaisar	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Ordabasy - Yelimay Semey	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Yelimay Semey - Alashkert	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:1

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