Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Toyama Stadium (Toyama)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Kataller Toyama		Avispa Fukuoka

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.8	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3	2.05
	3.45	3	2.24	Watch
	3.64	2.98	2.35
	3.59	2.91	2.26	Watch
	3.6	3	2
	3.82	3.01	2.21	Watch
	3.45	3	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.25)	2.96 ↓ (3.15)	2.2 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kataller Toyama
26.2%

Draw
31.5%

Avispa Fukuoka
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

28.5%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

28.2%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Kataller Toyama - Avispa Fukuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Kataller Toyama will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kataller Toyama (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Kataller Toyama (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kataller Toyama (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Koh Bong-jo (G) 88. Hama T. 40. Takeuchi Y. 5. Imase J. 2. Yoshida A. 14. Ura J. 24. Kawai Y. 48. Ueda K. 33. Takahashi Y. 17. Inoue N. 10. Matsuda R.	24. Obata Y. (G) 2. Yuzawa M. 19. Kim M. 4. Inoue S. 47. Hashimoto Y. 15. Akino H. 6. Shigemi M. 22. Fujimoto K. 53. Maeda H. 50. Sato S. 49. Maeda I.
Substitutes
13. Fukazawa S. 25. Kameda A. 32. Mizoguchi S. 23. Nishiya S. 21. Okubo T. (G) 41. Sakai S. 6. Sera S. 22. Shiina N. 9. Usui S.	20. Ando T. 18. Iwasaki Y. 5. Kamijima T. 7. Kanamori T. 8. Konno K. 29. Maejima Y. 88. Matsuoka D. 11. Miki T. 1. Nagaishi T. (G)
Coaches
Otagiri M.	Kim Myong-hwi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Maeda I. (Pen),
40', 0 - 2, Akino H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Hama T. ↓, Nishiya S. ↑,
57', Ura J. ↓, Mizoguchi S. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Takahashi Y. ⚽,
66', Maeda I. ↓, Miki T. ↑,
66', Maeda H. ↓, Konno K. ↑,
69', Yuzawa M. ↓, Maejima Y. ↑,
69', Fujimoto K. ↓, Iwasaki Y. ↑,
73', Matsuda R. ↓, Usui S. ↑,
77', Sato S. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
81', Inoue N. ↓, Shiina N. ↑,
81', Ueda K. ↓, Sera S. ↑,
90+7', Kim M. ↓, Kamijima T. ↑,
90+11', Sera S. 🟨,

Preview

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Avispa Fukuoka could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kataller Toyama won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Kataller Toyama won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
17.05.25	Consadole Sapporo - Kataller Toyama	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Kataller Toyama - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
06.05.25	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama	2:2 ✺
29.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Montedio Yamagata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTLTT
- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Yokohama FC - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
06.05.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
29.04.25	Shonan Bellmare - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
28.09.14	Kataller Toyama - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2
11.05.14	Avispa Fukuoka - Kataller Toyama	2:1
29.09.13	Avispa Fukuoka - Kataller Toyama	1:4

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