Match Info

J1 League - Round 5

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Avispa Fukuoka		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.86	Watch
	2.75	3	2.65
	3.85	3.25	1.95	Watch
	4.2	3.51	1.95
	3.81	3.37	2.02	Watch
	3.9	3.25	1.91
	3.83	3.52	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (2.76)	3.34 ↑ (3.11)	2.04 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avispa Fukuoka
25.2%

Draw
28.4%

Nagoya Grampus
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

30.4%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avispa Fukuoka's form might have worsened.

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nagoya Grampus's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	60%	10%

Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Nagoya will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Avispa Fukuoka (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Nagoya (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka (votes: 2 - 40%). Nagoya (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Obi P. O. (G) 16. Oka T. 37. Tashiro M. 15. Tsujioka Y. (C) 47. Hashimoto Y. 6. Shigemi M. 8. Okuno K. 29. Maejima Y. 22. Fujimoto K. 14. Nago S. 18. Sato S.	1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 13. Fujii H. 3. Sato Y. 27. Nakayama K. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 31. Takamine T. 9. Asano Y. 25. Marcus Vinicius 22. Kimura Y. 11. Yamagishi Y.
Substitutes
17. Akino H. 13. Ben Khalifa N. 41. Fujita K. (G) 25. Kitajima Y. 3. Nara T. 32. Sani Brown A. 2. Yuzawa M. 9. Zahedi S.	19. Koda H. 20. Mikuni K. 44. Mori S. 18. Nagai K. 2. Nogami Y. 41. Ono M. 8. Shiihashi K. 30. Sugiura S. 16. Takeda Y. (G)
Coaches
Tsukahara S.	Petrovic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', 0 - 1, Yamagishi Y. ⚽, Marcus Vinicius (A),
25', 0 - 2, Inagaki S. ⚽, Marcus Vinicius (A),
39', 0 - 3, Kimura Y. ⚽, Hara T. (A),
41', Okuno K. ↓, Kitajima Y. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Fujimoto K. ↓, Akino H. ↑,
46', Hashimoto Y. ↓, Yuzawa M. ↑,
53', Tashiro M. 🟨,
61', Tsujioka Y. 🟨,
61', Nago S. ↓, Ben Khalifa N. ↑,
64', 0 - 4, Yamagishi Y. ⚽, Nakayama K. (A),
68', Oka T. 🟨,
80', Marcus Vinicius ↓, Mori S. ↑,
81', Maejima Y. 🟨,
83', Tsujioka Y. 🟨,
87', Nakayama K. ↓, Koda H. ↑,
87', Inagaki S. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
87', Sato Y. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
87', Asano Y. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
88', Sato S. ↓, Zahedi S. ↑,
89', 1 - 4, Oka T. ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 5, Mori S. ⚽, Fujii H. (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 2.

Avispa Fukuoka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Ben Khalifa N. (Injury) Miki T. (Red Card)

There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T. (Injury) Mateus (Injury) Morishima T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nagoya: Izumi R. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Nagoya Grampus: 0.78% Avispa Fukuoka: 0.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3

Last Results with these Odds

Avispa Fukuoka - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 34.23%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
06.12.25	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLWL
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
01.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.12.25	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0
17.05.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
04.10.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:0
07.04.24	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0
Japan J League Cup
15.10.23	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1
11.10.23	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:0
Japan J1 League
16.09.23	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:0

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