Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	LDU Quito		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.8	4.5	Watch
	2.08	2.82	4.15	Watch
	2.17	2.88	4.59
	2.51	2.53	3.69	Watch
	2.13	2.91	4.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.94)	2.79 ↓ (3.22)	4.26 ↓ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
43.4%

Draw
34.2%

São Paulo
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

29.5%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

31.2%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that LDU Quito's form might have worsened.

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for LDU Quito, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.5%	17.6%	7.8%

LDU Quito - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. LDU Quito will win (votes: 38 - 74.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 7.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 62.5% – 86.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - LDU Quito (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): LDU Quito will win (28 of 29 users predict this - 96.55%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. LDU Quito (votes: 29 - 96.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valle G. (G) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 4. Ade R. 33. Quinonez L. 14. Quintero J. (C) 20. Cornejo F. 8. Gruezo C. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 9. Alzugaray L. 15. Villamil G. 16. Medina J.	23. Rafael (C) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 6. Soares C. 21. Bobadilla D. 29. Pablo Maia 20. Marcos Antonio 13. Diaz E. 77. Rigoni E. 10. Luciano
Substitutes
6. Aimar D. 24. Cabeza A. 21. Castillo E. 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 23. Diaz M. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 26. Duran P. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 11. Estrada M. 5. Minda K. 7. Pastran L.	25. Alisson 19. Dinenno J. 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 22. Mailton 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 35. Sabino 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell 50. Young (G)
Coaches
Tiago Nunes	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Ramirez Leon B. J. ⚽, Allala Menendez G. F. (A),
27', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Soares C. ↓, Mailton ↑,
58', Medina J. ↓, Cabeza A. ↑,
65', Tiago Nunes 🟨,
70', Rigoni E. ↓, Ferreira ↑,
70', Bobadilla D. ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
71', Cornejo F. ↓, Minda K. ↑,
71', Cabeza A. ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
72', Quinonez L. 🟨,
78', 2 - 0, Estrada M. ⚽,
84', Alzugaray L. ↓, Pastran L. ↑,
84', Quintero J. ↓, Cuero Mercado J. W. ↑,
88', Villamil G. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

LDU Quito has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Paulo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, LDU Quito is a strong favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ferreira (Inactive) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in LDU Quito: Ramirez Leon B. J. (Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Rodriguinho (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, LDU Quito won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.25	Libertad Loja - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Macará	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	El Nacional - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.08.25	LDU Quito - Manta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTLWT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.08.25	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Sport Recife - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	São Paulo - LDU Quito	1:1 penalties
24.08.23	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:1
Copa Libertadores
22.09.20	LDU Quito - São Paulo	4:2
11.03.20	São Paulo - LDU Quito	3:0

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