Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Magenta Sport
Indonesia	Mola TV
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Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	LDU Quito		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	5	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3
	1.82	3.2	4.7	Watch
	1.83	3.33	5.13
	1.22	5.85	13.87	Watch
	2.15	3	3.4	Watch
	1.88	3.22	4.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.3)	3.56 ↑ (2.99)	5.74 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
54.3%

Draw
28.2%

Botafogo RJ
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

31.5%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

32.4%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in LDU Quito's performance.

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with LDU Quito that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82%	11.5%	6.6%

LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. LDU Quito will win (votes: 49 - 81.7%). Botafogo will win (votes: 4 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 71.9% – 91.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Botafogo (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Botafogo (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): LDU Quito will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. LDU Quito (votes: 29 - 78.4%). Botafogo (votes: 6 - 16.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valle G. (G) 3. Mina R. 4. Ade R. 33. Quinonez L. 8. Gruezo C. 14. Quintero J. (C) 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 15. Villamil G. 20. Cornejo F. 9. Alzugaray L. 16. Medina J.	12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 21. Marcal 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles 35. Danilo 25. Allan 7. Artur 10. Savarino J. 11. Matheus Martins 17. Marlon Freitas (C)
Substitutes
6. Aimar D. 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 10. Alvarado A. 24. Cabeza A. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 23. Diaz M. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 26. Duran P. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 11. Estrada M. 5. Minda K. 7. Pastran L.	98. Arthur Cabral 30. Correa J. 57. David Ricardo 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 47. Jeffinho 77. Kauan Lindes 8. Montoro A. 16. Nathan Fernandes 22. Neto (G) 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 23. Rodriguez S.
Coaches
Tiago Nunes	Ancelotti D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Villamil G. ⚽, Alzugaray L. (A),
43', Danilo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Alzugaray L. (Pen),
61', Allan ↓, Newton ↑,
61', Marlon Freitas ↓, Arthur Cabral ↑,
67', Artur ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
69', Savarino J. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
73', Barboza A. 🟨,
74', Cornejo F. 🟨,
75', Matheus Martins ↓, Jeffinho ↑,
78', Medina J. ↓, Cabeza A. ↑,
78', Alzugaray L. ↓, Erique Villigua Y. H. ↑,
83', Mina R. 🟥,
84', Ramirez Leon B. J. ↓, Allala Menendez G. F. ↑,
90+2', Cornejo F. ↓, Minda K. ↑,
90+7', Allala Menendez G. F. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

LDU Quito is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in LDU Quito: Cuero Mercado J. W. (Face Injury) Zambrano O. (Doping)

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Cuiabano (Ankle Injury) David Ricardo (Injury) Kaio (Hamstring Injury) Ramos C. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, LDU Quito won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.08.25	LDU Quito - Manta	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.25	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.08.25	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
24.07.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLWW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.25	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.08.25	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	1:0
08.05.24	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	2:1
11.04.24	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
06.06.23	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	0:0
04.05.23	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	0:0

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