Match Info

URUGUAY: PRIMERA DIVISION - CLAUSURA - ROUND 5

Date: 14 October 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Parque Liebig's (Fray Bentos)


	La Luz		Liverpool Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.75	1.85	Watch
	3.6	3.5	1.87	Watch
	3.75	3.6	1.87	Watch
	4.14	3.84	1.88
	3.7	3.5	1.83
	3.88	3.68	1.82	Watch
	3.7	3.6	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (2.71)	3.64 ↑ (3.42)	1.86 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
24.5%

Draw
25.5%

Liverpool Montevideo
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

27.4%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

27.5%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that La Luz's form might have worsened.

Liverpool Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Liverpool Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for La Luz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Liverpool Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

La Luz - Liverpool Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 2. Paolini M. 8. Viera R. (C) 23. Castillo E. 5. De Los Santos M. 20. Rabunal M. 14. Porcile P. 30. Quintana J. 26. Machado L. 11. Lemos E.	1. Britos S. (C) 4. Perdomo F. 3. Izquierdo J. 33. Antoni M. 11. Samudio M. 16. Barrios M. 15. Siles P. 8. Napoli G. 19. Rodriguez L. 23. Bentancourt R. 20. Ocampo M.
Substitutes
24. Baeza J. 28. Barreto F. 7. Boselli J. 22. Fagundez P. 15. Gonzalez A. 99. Gonzalez D. 10. Osores B. 3. Padula Lenna G. 21. Pucheta J. 31. Sanchez R. (G)	30. Aires A. 32. Bregante F. 28. Graces A. 21. Lentinelly S. (G) 27. Lopez Y. 14. Rivero R. 2. Rodriguez I. 5. Silva M. 9. Vecino T. 31. Wasilewsky L.
Coaches
Russo M.	Bava J.

Preview

Recent matches La Luz is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Liverpool is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Liverpool will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches La Luz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.10.23	Montevideo City Torque - La Luz	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	La Luz - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
27.08.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - La Luz	2:2 ✺
19.08.23	Montevideo Wanderers - La Luz	0:1 ✺
21.07.23	La Luz - Montevideo City Torque	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LTTWL
- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.10.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
03.09.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
26.08.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
20.08.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
30.07.23	Defensor Sporting - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.03.23	Liverpool Montevideo - La Luz	2:3

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