Match Info

URUGUAY: PRIMERA DIVISION - CLAUSURA - ROUND 2

Date: 27 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)


	Peñarol de Montevideo		La Luz

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.8	6	Watch
	1.46	4.2	6.1
	1.51	4.35	6.94
	1.44	3.6	5.8
	1.49	4.1	6.25	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.52)	4.11 ↑ (4.1)	6.32 ↑ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
62.9%

Draw
22.5%

La Luz
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

22.3%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

21.7%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Peñarol de Montevideo - La Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Amores G. (G) 13. Aguirregaray M. (C) 2. Leo Coelho 15. Rak Y. 27. Lucas Hernandez 5. Cristoforo S. 14. Garcia D. 30. Gonzalez A. 8. Rodriguez S. 10. Mendez K. 19. Arezo M.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 2. Paolini M. 8. Viera R. 23. Castillo E. 20. Rabunal M. 14. Porcile P. 30. Quintana J. 16. Hernandez A. (C) 10. Osores B. 99. Gonzalez D.
Substitutes
1. Cardozo T. (G) 7. Carlos Sanchez 9. Gonzalez F. 28. Homenchenko S. 16. Mayada C. 3. Menosse H. 20. Milans P. 11. Neris P. 17. Rodríguez Alonso D. V. 25. Sosa I.	28. Barreto F. 7. Boselli J. 5. De Los Santos M. 22. Fagundez P. 15. Gonzalez A. 4. Gonzalez M. 11. Lemos E. 26. Machado L. 1. Mendez R. (G) 29. Ramis J.
Coaches
Rodriguez D.	Russo M.

Preview

Peñarol is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

La Luz is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Peñarol is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Peñarol won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.08.23	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
23.07.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
16.07.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:1 ✺
08.07.23	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
03.07.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWWLW
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.08.23	Montevideo Wanderers - La Luz	0:1 ✺
21.07.23	La Luz - Montevideo City Torque	1:3 ✺
16.07.23	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
07.07.23	La Luz - Montevideo Wanderers	2:3 ✺
01.07.23	Defensor Sporting - La Luz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
02.06.23	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2
13.02.23	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:4
Uruguay Copa
01.11.22	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 penalties
27.10.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - La Luz	1:0

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