Match Info

URUGUAY: PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO INTERMEDIO - ROUND 1

Date: 2 June 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Parque Liebig's (Fray Bentos)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)


	La Luz		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.8	1.55	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.53	Watch
	5.6	3.95	1.52
	5.91	4.11	1.6
	5.8	3.6	1.53
	5.75	3.9	1.55	Watch
	5.4	3.95	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.6 ↑ (4.98)	3.89 ↑ (3.83)	1.55 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
16.5%

Draw
23.8%

Peñarol de Montevideo
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

24.3%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

24.8%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mendez R. (G) 8. Viera R. 3. Cardozo Coitinho S. (C) 21. Hernandez R. 13. Ancheta E. 14. Porcile P. 5. De Los Santos M. 23. Castillo E. 19. Quintero C. 9. Royon N. 99. Scorza B.	1. Cardozo T. (C) 20. Milans P. 2. Leo Coelho 3. Menosse H. 27. Lucas Hernandez 11. Rossi N. 5. Cristoforo S. 8. Rodriguez S. 10. Mendez K. 19. Arezo M. 33. Betancor B.
Substitutes
7. Boselli J. 4. Carrera S. 12. Colman J. (G) 22. Fagundez P. 15. Gonzalez A. 16. Hernandez A. 26. Machado L. 29. Millacet F. 11. Neira I. 30. Quintana J.	13. Aguirregaray M. 29. Alonso Fontes M. D. 7. Carlos Sanchez 18. Ferreira M. 12. Lima J. (G) 24. Mansilla B. 15. Rak Y. 17. Rodríguez Alonso D. V. 21. Rolan D. 6. Saravia Salvia R. A.
Coaches
Pallas I.	Arias A.

Preview

La Luz is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Peñarol is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

La Luz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Peñarol is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches La Luz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams La Luz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.05.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - La Luz	0:2 ✺
07.05.23	La Luz - Danubio	3:1 ✺
29.04.23	Nacional Montevideo - La Luz	3:0 ✺
22.04.23	La Luz - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
17.04.23	La Luz - Deportivo Maldonado	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWLTW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Sudamericana
23.05.23	Millonarios - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.05.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
08.05.23	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.23	Defensa y Justicia - Peñarol de Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
13.02.23	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:4
Uruguay Copa
01.11.22	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 penalties
27.10.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - La Luz	1:0

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