Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 13

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday


	La Luz		Deportivo Maldonado

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.25
	3.1	3.05	2.12
	3.38	3.32	2.11
	3.43	3.09	2.17	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.5
	3.39	3.34	2.1
	3.3	3	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↓ (3.28)	3.11 ↓ (3.25)	2.19 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
29%

Draw
29.4%

Deportivo Maldonado
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

28.4%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

27.8%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

La Luz - Deportivo Maldonado Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. La Luz will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Maldonado will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. La Luz (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Maldonado (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Toledo H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
69', 🟥,
90+1', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+5', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 8).

La Luz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Maldonado is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 2.7:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, La Luz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.07.25	Oriental de La Paz - La Luz	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.07.25	Albion Montevideo - La Luz	3:0 ✺
06.07.25	La Luz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	Rampla Juniors - La Luz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWLTL
- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.07.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerrito	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Colón Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Artigas - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Oriental de La Paz	3:0 ✺
28.06.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.04.25	Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz	4:4
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz	1:0
17.04.23	La Luz - Deportivo Maldonado	4:2

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