Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Lanús		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.57	Watch
	2.65	3	2.75
	3	2.78	2.68	Watch
	3.13	2.84	2.78
	3.02	2.82	2.73	Watch
	2.9	2.75	2.63
	2.97	2.77	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 (2.95)	2.85 ↓ (2.88)	2.69 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
31.9%

Draw
33%

Boca Juniors
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

32.1%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

31.8%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	77.8%	11.1%

Lanús - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Boca Juniors (2.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 11. Salvio E. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 23. Carrera R. 8. Watson F. N. 9. Bou W.	1. Marchesin A. (G) 23. Weigandt M. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 18. Delgado M. 36. Aranda T. 28. Bareiro A. 16. Miguel Merentiel
Substitutes
25. Aquino D. 77. Besozzi L. 20. Cabrera B. 35. De Jesus R. 37. De Martis T. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 2. Romero L. 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M.	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 30. Belmonte T. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 4. Figal J. 13. Garcia J. (G) 37. Gelini G. 48. Gorosito D. 21. Herrera A. 11. Janson L. 26. Pellegrino M. 22. Zenon K. 41. Zufiaurre I.
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Ubeda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Ascacibar S. ⚽,
17', Di Lollo L. 🟨,
17', Canale Dominguez J. 🟨,
30', 0 - 2, Miguel Merentiel ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Watson F. N. ↓, De Martis T. ↑,
46', Carrera R. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
61', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
64', 0 - 3, Miguel Merentiel ⚽, Paredes L. (A),
66', Aquino D. 🟨,
72', Bou W. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
72', Paredes L. 🟨,
79', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
80', Bareiro A. 🟨,
82', Medina A. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
87', Paredes L. ↓, Belmonte T. ↑,
87', Bareiro A. ↓, Zufiaurre I. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Boca Juniors may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Boca Juniors has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Lanús: Loaiza R. (Knee Injury) Marcelino Moreno (Inactive)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Angel Romero (Injury) Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Injury) Gimenez M. (Groin Injury) Velasco A. (Knee Injury) Zeballos E. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Lanús: Sanchez F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:28. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lanús won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.3%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Boca Juniors - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.57%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.03.26	Defensa y Justicia - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Recopa Sudamericana
26.02.26	Flamengo - Lanús	2:3 ET ✺
19.02.26	Lanús - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.02.26	Independiente - Lanús	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Lanús - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.1 TWWLT
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
24.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.02.26	Boca Juniors - Racing	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Boca Juniors - Platense	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.25	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:0 penalties
03.11.24	Lanús - Boca Juniors	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
18.02.24	Lanús - Boca Juniors	2:1
23.09.23	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.06.23	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:1
14.09.22	Lanús - Boca Juniors	0:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
17.04.22	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:1

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