Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 8 July 2023, Saturday

Location: Cashman Field (Las Vegas)

Referee: Jensen B. (Usa)


	Las Vegas Lights		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.65
	2.23	3.4	2.85
	2.33	3.59	2.87
	2.27	3.62	2.71	Watch
	2.25	3.55	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (3.09)	3.53 ↑ (3.37)	2.77 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Lights
40.9%

Draw
26%

Birmingham Legion
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26.9%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

26.8%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Lights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Las Vegas Lights's performance.

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham Legion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Las Vegas Lights that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham Legion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Las Vegas Lights - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz L. (G) 4. Stauffer L. 98. Zali T. 21. Mitrano A. 12. Bagley T. 10. Ingram J. 17. Bushue J. 30. Carleton A. 20. Oteng E. 8. Preston T. E. 9. Botello Faz P. (C)	1. Van Oekel M. (G) 13. Rufe J. 21. Crognale A. 3. Kavita P. 33. Mensah M. 11. Brett N. 6. Asiedu A. 15. Pasher T. 19. Martinez E. 10. Kassim P. 9. Agudelo J.
Substitutes
3. Carroll Z. 11. Gonzalez A. 22. Jimenez A. 5. Lage M. 45. Ledesma E. 19. Rios D. 13. Zuluaga A. (G)	17. Corcoran M. 23. Dupont G. 7. Nwegbo D. 2. Reveno B. 18. Spangenberg T. (G)
Coaches
Sanchez I.	Soehn T.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Las Vegas has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Birmingham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Birmingham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Las Vegas won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship
04.07.23	Las Vegas Lights - New Mexico United	2:2 ✺
01.07.23	Las Vegas Lights - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:2 ✺
24.06.23	Louisville City - Las Vegas Lights	1:0 ✺
17.06.23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Las Vegas Lights	2:0 ✺
14.06.23	El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
01.07.23	San Antonio - Birmingham Legion	3:1 ✺
21.06.23	Birmingham Legion - Loudoun United	2:0 ✺
17.06.23	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
07.06.23	Birmingham Legion - Inter Miami	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
27.05.23	Detroit City - Birmingham Legion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
18.05.22	Birmingham Legion - Las Vegas Lights	0:0

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