What is the expert prediction for Lazio vs Atalanta?

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Lazio vs Atalanta Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, March 04, 2026)

Match Info

Coppa Italia - Semi-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Australia	Paramount+
Austria	DAZN
Belarus	Sport TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	Arena 4
Indonesia	ANTV
Italy	20 Mediaset, Canale 5, Infinity+, Italia 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Malta	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	DGO Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Sport Bladet Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	Tabii, TRT Spor
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Lazio		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.85	3	2.55	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.1
	2.98	3.05	2.58	Watch
	3.05	3.09	2.62
	3.08	3.13	2.58	Watch
	2.9	2.88	2.5
	3.15	3.1	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.31)	3.08 ↓ (3.41)	2.5 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
31.3%

Draw
30.8%

Atalanta
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

27.8%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

28.2%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atalanta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atalanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.5%	59.3%	22.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Atalanta will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 59.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40.8% – 77.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Atalanta (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Atalanta (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lazio (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 2 - 20%). Atalanta (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Provedel I. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 17. Tavares N. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 32. Cataldi D. 24. Taylor K. 18. Isaksen G. 27. Maldini D. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 4. Hien I. 23. Kolasinac S. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 47. Bernasconi L. 10. Samardzic L. 59. Zalewski N. 90. Krstovic N.
Substitutes
21. Belahyane R. 22. Cancellieri M. 19. Dia B. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 29. Lazzari M. 40. Motta E. (G) 14. Noslin T. 4. Patric 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 25. Provstgaard O. 28. Przyborek A. 20. Ratkov P.	69. Ahanor H. 5. Bakker M. 16. Bellanova R. 19. Djimsiti B. 3. Kossounou O. 6. Musah Y. 31. Rossi F. (G) 9. Scamacca G. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 45. Vavassori D.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', De Roon M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', 1 - 0, Dele-Bashiru F. ⚽, Maldini D. (A),
51', 1 - 1, Pasalic M. ⚽,
64', Isaksen G. ↓, Cancellieri M. ↑,
64', Scalvini G. ↓, Kossounou O. ↑,
64', De Roon M. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
66', Sarri M. 🟨,
66', Palladino R. 🟨,
69', Pasalic M. 🟨,
76', Kolasinac S. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
76', Samardzic L. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
76', Zaccagni M. ↓, Noslin T. ↑,
76', Maldini D. ↓, Dia B. ↑,
83', Taylor K. ↓, Belahyane R. ↑,
85', Krstovic N. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Dia B. ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, Musah Y. ⚽, Sulemana K. (A),
90+5', Hien I. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lazio has had a series of away games.

Atalanta could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Lazio: Basic T. (Injury) Gigot S. (Ankle Injury) Gila M. (Knee Injury) Maldini D. (Ankle Injury) Pedro (Ankle Injury) Rovella N. (Injury)

There will not play in Atalanta: De Ketelaere C. (Knee Injury) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Ederson (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:34. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.1:2).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
01.03.26	Torino - Lazio	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cagliari - Lazio	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
11.02.26	Bologna - Lazio	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
08.02.26	Juventus - Lazio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LTLWT
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
01.03.26	Sassuolo - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.02.26	Atalanta - Napoli	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2
19.10.25	Atalanta - Lazio	0:0
06.04.25	Atalanta - Lazio	0:1
28.12.24	Lazio - Atalanta	1:1
04.02.24	Atalanta - Lazio	3:1
08.10.23	Lazio - Atalanta	3:2
11.02.23	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2

Lazio - Atalanta: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide