Match Info

Serie A - Round 27

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia)

Referee: Marchetti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Starzplay Sports app


	Sassuolo		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.7	3.45	2.02	Watch
	3.42	3.3	2.32
	3.49	3.4	2.14	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2
	3.87	3.52	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↓ (3.78)	3.41 ↓ (3.6)	2.11 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sassuolo
26.6%

Draw
28%

Atalanta
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

26.3%

48.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

28.7%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atalanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	15.2%	78.8%

Sassuolo - Atalanta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sassuolo (3.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Atalanta (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (26 of 33 users predict this - 78.79%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.84% – 92.74%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Atalanta (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Muric A. (G) 25. Coulibaly W. 21. Idzes J. 80. Muharemovic T. 23. Garcia U. 90. Kone I. 18. Matic N. 42. Thorstvedt K. 10. Berardi D. (C) 99. Pinamonti A. 45. Lauriente A.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 47. Bernasconi L. 10. Samardzic L. 59. Zalewski N. 9. Scamacca G.
Substitutes
50. Bakola D. 3. Doig J. 20. Fadera A. 44. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 24. Moro L. 8. Nzola M. 66. Pedro Felipe 19. Romagna F. 12. Satalino G. (G) 13. Turati S. (G) 7. Volpato C. 40. Vranckx A. 16. Zacchi G. (G)	5. Bakker M. 4. Hien I. 3. Kossounou O. 90. Krstovic N. 6. Musah Y. 31. Rossi F. (G) 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 45. Vavassori D. 77. Zappacosta D.
Coaches
Grosso F.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Idzes J. 🟨,
16', Pinamonti A. 🟥,
21', Bernasconi L. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Kone I. ⚽, Lauriente A. (A),
45+2', Grosso F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
46', Bellanova R. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
46', Bernasconi L. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
57', Matic N. 🟨,
58', Zalewski N. 🟨,
67', Zalewski N. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Thorstvedt K. ⚽, Lauriente A. (A),
73', Berardi D. ↓, Nzola M. ↑,
73', Matic N. ↓, Lipani L. ↑,
74', Lauriente A. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
76', Djimsiti B. ↓, Hien I. ↑,
79', Fadera A. ↓, Iannoni E. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Musah Y. ⚽, Zappacosta D. (A),
89', Kone I. ↓, Doig J. ↑,
90+7', Palladino R. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 9 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Sassuolo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atalanta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sassuolo: Boloca D. (Muscle Injury) Cande F. (Knee Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Knee Injury) Walukiewicz S. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Atalanta: De Ketelaere C. (Knee Injury) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 20:48. (average 1:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Sassuolo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.9:2.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Atalanta: 0.8% Sassuolo: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9:9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.62%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
20.02.26	Sassuolo - Verona	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Udinese - Sassuolo	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Sassuolo - Inter Milan	0:5 ✺
31.01.26	Pisa - Sassuolo	1:3 ✺
25.01.26	Sassuolo - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWLWW
- Atalanta
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.02.26	Atalanta - Napoli	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
09.02.26	Atalanta - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
09.11.25	Atalanta - Sassuolo	0:3
17.02.24	Atalanta - Sassuolo	3:0
Coppa Italia
03.01.24	Atalanta - Sassuolo	3:1
Italian Serie A
20.08.23	Sassuolo - Atalanta	0:2
04.02.23	Sassuolo - Atalanta	1:0
15.10.22	Atalanta - Sassuolo	2:1
10.04.22	Sassuolo - Atalanta	2:1

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