Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: New Balance Arena (Bergamo)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Atalanta		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.8	3.1
	2.05	3.75	3.25
	2.18	3.85	3.15
	2.23	3.86	3.17
	2.22	3.89	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3.1
	2.26	3.85	3.2
	2.16	3.75	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.05)	3.79 ↑ (3.76)	3.13 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
44.1%

Draw
25.3%

Borussia Dortmund
30.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.6%

25.4%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.5%	17.2%	17.2%

Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 37 - 64.9%). Borussia D will win (votes: 10 - 17.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 17.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 52.5% – 77.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Borussia D (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 88.9%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Atalanta (2.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Borussia D (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 15 - 75%). Borussia D (votes: 4 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 4. Hien I. 23. Kolasinac S. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 47. Bernasconi L. 10. Samardzic L. 59. Zalewski N. 9. Scamacca G.	1. Kobel G. (G) 23. Can E. (C) 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 7. Bellingham J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 5. Bakker M. 16. Bellanova R. 19. Djimsiti B. 13. Ederson 3. Kossounou O. 90. Krstovic N. 6. Musah Y. 31. Rossi F. (G) 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 45. Vavassori D.	27. Adeyemi K. 47. Benkara E. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 40. Inacio S. 33. Meyer A. (G) 31. Ostrzinski S. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 49. Reggiani L. 20. Sabitzer M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Scamacca G. ⚽,
13', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Zappacosta D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Can E. 🟨,
57', 3 - 0, Pasalic M. ⚽, De Roon M. (A),
60', Beier M. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
60', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
69', Hien I. 🟨,
69', Silva F. 🟨,
70', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
70', Bellingham J. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
72', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
72', Kolasinac S. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
75', 3 - 1, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Chukwuemeka C. (A),
77', Scalvini G. ↓, Djimsiti B. ↑,
85', Zalewski N. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
90+7', Schlotterbeck N. 🟥,
90+7', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
90+8', 4 - 1, Samardzic L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 0-2. Second leg.

Atalanta is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Borussia D is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atalanta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atalanta: De Ketelaere C. (Knee Injury) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Drewes P. (Inactive) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Sule N. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Atalanta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	5:4	1	6

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Dortmund: 1.03%

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 46.6%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
22.02.26	Atalanta - Napoli	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
09.02.26	Atalanta - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
05.02.26	Atalanta - Juventus	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWWW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0
UEFA Europa League
22.02.18	Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
15.02.18	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	3:2
Club Friendly
01.08.17	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	0:1

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