Match Info

Coppa Italia - Final

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lazio		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.9	1.57	Watch
	4.95	3.7	1.7	Watch
	5.7	3.9	1.68
	53.78	12.80	1.03	Watch
	5	3.6	1.62
	5.74	3.93	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.4 ↑ (4.53)	5.31 ↑ (3.76)	1.55 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
8.2%

Draw
20.8%

Inter Milan
71%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

25.1%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

24.6%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lazio's form might have worsened.

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Inter Milan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lazio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-15.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Inter Milan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	22.2%	71.1%

Lazio - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 3 - 6.7%). Inter will win (votes: 32 - 71.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Inter: 57.9% – 84.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Inter (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH +1 - Lazio (2.12) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Lazio (4.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Lazio (2.63) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 6 - 60%). Inter (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Motta E. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 17. Tavares N. 26. Basic T. 4. Patric 24. Taylor K. 18. Isaksen G. 14. Noslin T. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	13. Martinez J. (G) 31. Bisseck Y. 25. Akanji M. 95. Bastoni A. 2. Dumfries D. 23. Barella N. 7. Zielinski P. 8. Sucic P. 32. Dimarco F. 9. Thuram M. 10. Martinez L. (C)
Substitutes
21. Belahyane R. 22. Cancellieri M. 32. Cataldi D. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 19. Dia B. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 99. Giacomone G. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 29. Lazzari M. 27. Maldini D. 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 25. Provstgaard O. 20. Ratkov P. 6. Rovella N.	15. Acerbi F. 14. Bonny A. 20. Calhanoglu H. 30. Carlos Augusto 43. Cocchi M. 36. Darmian M. 6. de Vrij S. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 17. Diouf A. 94. Esposito F. 16. Frattesi D. 11. Luis Henrique 22. Mkhitaryan H. 48. Mosconi M. 1. Sommer Y. (G)
Coaches
Sarri M.	Chivu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', Bisseck Y. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Marusic A. (Own goal),
16', Bastoni A. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Martinez L. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
38', Gila M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Patric ↓, Rovella N. ↑,
66', Isaksen G. ↓, Cancellieri M. ↑,
68', Dumfries D. ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
68', Sucic P. ↓, Mkhitaryan H. ↑,
72', Marusic A. ↓, Lazzari M. ↑,
72', Zaccagni M. ↓, Dia B. ↑,
77', Bastoni A. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
77', Martinez L. ↓, Bonny A. ↑,
78', Basic T. ↓, Pedro ↑,
82', Thuram M. ↓, Diouf A. ↑,
85', Pedro 🟨,
85', Dimarco F. 🟨,
85', Barella N. 🟨,
87', Zaccagni M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 0.

Lazio is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Inter is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Inter is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Lazio: Provedel I. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Lazio: Cancellieri M. (Muscle Injury) Cataldi D. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Inter: Calhanoglu H. (Calf Injury) Esposito F. (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 20:41. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 1.2:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Inter Milan - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.99%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
09.05.26	Lazio - Inter Milan	0:3 ✺
04.05.26	Cremonese - Lazio	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Lazio - Udinese	3:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
22.04.26	Atalanta - Lazio	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
18.04.26	Napoli - Lazio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 LWTWW
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
09.05.26	Lazio - Inter Milan	0:3 ✺
03.05.26	Inter Milan - Parma	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Torino - Inter Milan	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
21.04.26	Inter Milan - Como	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
17.04.26	Inter Milan - Cagliari	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
09.05.26	Lazio - Inter Milan	0:3
09.11.25	Inter Milan - Lazio	2:0
18.05.25	Inter Milan - Lazio	2:2
Coppa Italia
25.02.25	Inter Milan - Lazio	2:0
Italian Serie A
16.12.24	Lazio - Inter Milan	0:6
19.05.24	Inter Milan - Lazio	1:1
Italian Super Cup
19.01.24	Inter Milan - Lazio	3:0

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