Match Info

Serie A - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Caze TV, Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, TLN
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	DAZN, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Lazio		Napoli

	1	X	2
	3.8	3	2.15	Watch
	3.75	2.95	2.2
	3.45	3.05	2.28	Watch
	3.47	3.04	2.31	Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.3
	3.6	3.11	2.4
	3.5	3	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (3.18)	3.01 ↓ (3.1)	2.28 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
26.7%

Draw
31.6%

Napoli
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

30.7%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

31.5%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.6%	25.7%	65.7%

Lazio - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 3 - 8.6%). Napoli will win (votes: 23 - 65.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 25.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 50% – 81.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.03) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Provedel I. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 3. Pellegrini Lu. 8. Guendouzi M. 32. Cataldi D. 26. Basic T. 22. Cancellieri M. 14. Noslin T. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 5. Juan Jesus 21. Politano M. 8. McTominay S. 68. Lobotka S. 37. Spinazzola L. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
21. Belahyane R. 71. Farcomeni V. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 29. Lazzari M. 35. Mandas C. (G) 9. Pedro 25. Provstgaard O. 6. Rovella N. 63. Serra F. 17. Tavares N.	69. Ambrosino G. 4. Buongiorno A. 14. Contini N. (G) 3. Gutierrez M. 70. Lang N. 35. Marianucci L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 95. Prisco V.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Spinazzola L. ⚽, Politano M. (A),
32', 0 - 2, Rrahmani A. ⚽, Politano M. (A),
43', Zaccagni M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Pellegrini Lu. ↓, Lazzari M. ↑,
64', Cataldi D. 🟨,
69', Noslin T. 🟨,
69', Rrahmani A. 🟨,
69', David Neres ↓, Mazzocchi P. ↑,
71', Cataldi D. ↓, Belahyane R. ↑,
71', Cancellieri M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
78', Spinazzola L. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
79', Rrahmani A. ↓, Buongiorno A. ↑,
81', Noslin T. 🟨,
82', Romagnoli A. 🟨,
86', Hojlund R. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
86', Elmas E. ↓, Ambrosino G. ↑,
87', Zaccagni M. ↓, Pedro ↑,
88', Marusic A. 🟥,
88', Mazzocchi P. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 3.

Lazio is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Napoli has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lazio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Napoli could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Lazio: Dele-Bashiru F. (International duty) Dia B. (International duty) Gigot S. (Ankle Injury) Hysaj E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Meret A. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Lazio: Rovella N. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Beukema S. (Foot Injury) Olivera M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 22:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.2:1.6).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Napoli: 3.78% Lazio: 0.93%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 29.89%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
27.12.25	Udinese - Lazio	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Lazio - Cremonese	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Parma - Lazio	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lazio - Bologna	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.12.25	Lazio - Milan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWTW
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
28.12.25	Cremonese - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Italian Super Cup
22.12.25	Napoli - Bologna	2:0 ✺
18.12.25	Napoli - Milan	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Udinese - Napoli	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Benfica - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
15.02.25	Lazio - Napoli	2:2
08.12.24	Napoli - Lazio	0:1
Coppa Italia
05.12.24	Lazio - Napoli	3:1
Italian Serie A
28.01.24	Lazio - Napoli	0:0
02.09.23	Napoli - Lazio	1:2
03.03.23	Napoli - Lazio	0:1
03.09.22	Lazio - Napoli	1:2

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