Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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France	DAZN 4, DAZN France
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India	FanCode, FanCode, GXR World
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Sweden	Viaplay
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Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Le Havre		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.1
	2.28	3.45	3.05	Watch
	2.31	3.48	3.24
	2.26	3.53	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3.1
	2.34	3.56	3.25	Watch
	2.28	3.45	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.38)	3.45 ↓ (3.47)	3.14 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
41.9%

Draw
27.7%

Saint-Étienne
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

27.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

27.7%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	16.7%	11.1%

Le Havre - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Le Havre will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gorgelin M. (G) 7. Nego L. 6. Youte Kinkoue E. 4. Lloris G. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 94. Toure A. (C) 34. Diawara M. 10. Casimir J. 8. Kechta Y. 45. Soumare I. 99. Hassan A.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 27. Macon Y. 13. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 4. Ekwah P. 29. Moueffek A. 7. Cardona I. 6. Bouchouari B. 22. Davitashvili Z. 32. Stassin L.
Substitutes
28. Ayew A. 25. Confais A. 30. Desmas A. (G) 46. Housni I. 21. Joujou A. 14. Kuzyaev D. 19. Ndiaye R. 32. Pembele T. 18. Zouaoui Y.	5. Abdelhamid Y. 8. Appiah D. 20. Boakye A. 17. Cornud P. 26. Fomba L. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 14. Mouton L. 9. Sissoko I. 10. Tardieu F.
Coaches
Digard D.	Horneland E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Stassin L. ⚽,
16', Ballo-Toure F. ↓, Zouaoui Y. ↑,
22', Lloris G. 🟨,
32', Zouaoui Y. 🟨,
45+1', Toure A. (Pen),
45+1', 1 - 1, Toure A. ⚽,
45+3', Cardona I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Moueffek A. 🟨,
61', Moueffek A. ↓, Tardieu F. ↑,
67', Diawara M. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
67', Hassan A. ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
82', Bouchouari B. ↓, Fomba L. ↑,
85', Soumare I. ↓, Pembele T. ↑,
85', Casimir J. ↓, Ndiaye R. ↑,
90+1', Macon Y. ↓, Appiah D. ↑,
90+1', Stassin L. ↓, Sissoko I. ↑,
90+4', Fomba L. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Recent matches Le Havre is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Saint-Étienne has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Saint-Étienne could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Le Havre will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Le Havre: Logbo A. (Shoulder Injury) Mosengo D. N. (Knee Injury) Sangante A. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Batubinsika D. (Yellow Cards) Old B. (Knee Injury) Wadji I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Kechta Y. (Inactive) Kitala Y. (Inactive) Kuzyaev D. (Ankle Injury) Mwanga J. (Red Card)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Le Havre won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:2 (average 3.3:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Le Havre won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
01.03.25	Lens - Le Havre	3:4 ✺
23.02.25	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:4 ✺
16.02.25	Le Havre - Nice	1:3 ✺
08.02.25	Lille - Le Havre	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Angers - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 37.7 WLLWT
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
01.03.25	Saint-Étienne - Nice	1:3 ✺
22.02.25	Saint-Étienne - Angers	3:3 ✺
15.02.25	Olympique Marseille - Saint-Étienne	5:1 ✺
08.02.25	Saint-Étienne - Rennes	0:2 ✺
01.02.25	Lille - Saint-Étienne	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
24.08.24	Saint-Étienne - Le Havre	0:2
French Ligue 2
18.03.23	Le Havre - Saint-Étienne	2:2
20.08.22	Saint-Étienne - Le Havre	0:6

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