Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 2 - ROUND 36

Date: 22 May 2023, Monday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Abed K. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
France	beIN Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Turkey	beIN Sports 4


	Le Havre		Valenciennes

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.6	6.5	Watch
	1.53	4	6
	1.54	3.8	6.1
	1.55	3.81	7.7
	1.52	3.75	6.5
	1.53	3.95	6.55	Watch
	1.53	3.9	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.63)	3.83 ↑ (3.58)	6.51 ↑ (5.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
61.2%

Draw
24.4%

Valenciennes
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

26.3%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

25.4%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Valenciennes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	6%	6%

Le Havre - Valenciennes Predictions

Users Predictions: Le Havre will win (44 of 50 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.99% – 97.01%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Le Havre has the most likely position - 1 (87.43%), project points - 76, currently - 71, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of promoted (>99%), a good chance of win league (87%).

Valenciennes has the most likely position - 18 (36.15%), project points - 42, currently - 39, a good chance of relegated (55%), not chance of promoted.

This event has quality 32, very big importance 100, match rating 66. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Le Havre won 2.

Le Havre is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Valenciennes is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Le Havre could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Le Havre is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Le Havre won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 25-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Le Havre won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 2
15.05.23	Annecy - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
08.05.23	Le Havre - Rodez	1:0 ✺
29.04.23	Caen - Le Havre	1:2 ✺
22.04.23	Le Havre - Quevilly	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Nîmes - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWTW
- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 2
13.05.23	Valenciennes - Pau	1:1 ✺
06.05.23	Nîmes - Valenciennes	3:3 ✺
29.04.23	Valenciennes - Bordeaux	0:2 ✺
22.04.23	Amiens - Valenciennes	0:2 ✺
15.04.23	Valenciennes - Niort	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
06.08.22	Valenciennes - Le Havre	1:0
16.04.22	Valenciennes - Le Havre	0:1
06.11.21	Le Havre - Valenciennes	0:0
08.05.21	Valenciennes - Le Havre	3:5
08.01.21	Le Havre - Valenciennes	0:2
28.10.19	Valenciennes - Le Havre	0:0
10.05.19	Valenciennes - Le Havre	1:0

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