Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 2 - ROUND 33

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
France	beIN Sports


	Caen		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.95
	2.7	2.8	2.9
	2.77	2.84	3.12
	2.62	2.7	3
	2.66	2.86	3.02	Watch
	2.65	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.4)	2.82 ↓ (3.1)	2.98 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
35.2%

Draw
33.3%

Le Havre
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29.9%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

29.5%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	46.7%	0%

Caen - Le Havre Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Caen will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caen: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Caen has the most likely position - 5 (27.2%), project points - 60, currently - 52, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of promoted (2%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Le Havre has the most likely position - 1 (80.81%), project points - 75, currently - 65, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of promoted (96%), a good chance of win league (81%).

This event has quality 40, importance 50, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caen won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Caen won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 22-29.

Including matches at home between the teams Caen won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-21.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
22.04.23	Niort - Caen	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Caen - Paris FC	3:1 ✺
08.04.23	Quevilly - Caen	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Caen - Dijon	2:1 ✺
18.03.23	Caen - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 2
22.04.23	Le Havre - Quevilly	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Nîmes - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
08.04.23	Le Havre - Guingamp	0:0 ✺
01.04.23	Pau - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
18.03.23	Le Havre - Saint-Étienne	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
02.09.22	Le Havre - Caen	2:1
19.03.22	Le Havre - Caen	2:4
16.10.21	Caen - Le Havre	2:2
15.03.21	Caen - Le Havre	0:2
21.11.20	Le Havre - Caen	1:2
Club Friendly
01.08.20	Caen - Le Havre	1:2
French Ligue 2
07.02.20	Le Havre - Caen	1:1

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