Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 5P
Canada	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Chile	15:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu
Colombia	13:45	Disney+
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Finland	21:45	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	12:45	FOX One
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	20:45	Viaplay
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 4, Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Le Mans		Lorient

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.6	Watch
	2.75	3.30	2.55
	2.82	3.3	2.52	Watch
	2.88	3.4	2.61
	2.78	3.4	2.51	Watch
	2.85	3.35	2.55
	2.89	3.43	2.65	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.87)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
33.8%

Draw
28.6%

Lorient
37.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.7%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28.4%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	44.4%	44.4%

Le Mans - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Lorient will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Kocik N. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 17. Yohou S. (C) 5. Voyer H. 29. Bretelle L. 26. Bamba R. 11. Bourabaa A. 10. Vercruysse J. 76. Larouci Y. 13. Diallo H. 14. Mafouta L.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 20. Sylla D. 3. Talbi M. (C) 32. Adjei N. 77. Katseris P. 8. Cadiou N. 62. Avom A. 43. Kouassi A. 33. Bernardeau G. 17. Makengo J. 18. Balde I.
Substitutes
15. Boisse N. 7. Brahimi B. 22. Calodat L. 25. Gueye D. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 8. Lauray A. 9. Rabillard A. 16. Torrente R. 23. Traore D.	19. Faye S. 2. Georgen A. 10. Jensen I. 21. Kamara B. (G) 42. Kone M. 30. Kuzmic S. 11. Le Bris T. 55. Obaretin N. 95. Toure I.
Coaches
Videira P.	Dujeux A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Bourabaa A. ⚽, Bamba R. (A),
11', Makengo J. 🟨,
17', Katseris P. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
19', Kouassi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Diallo H. 🟨,
57', 2 - 0, Diallo H. ⚽, Bretelle L. (A),
58', Larouci Y. ↓, Calodat L. ↑,
59', Diallo H. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
61', Avom A. 🟨,
65', Bernardeau G. ↓, Faye S. ↑,
65', Balde I. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
72', Bretelle L. ↓, Rabillard A. ↑,
72', Vercruysse J. ↓, Lauray A. ↑,
75', Sidibe D. 🟨,
75', Makengo J. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
75', Adjei N. ↓, Obaretin N. ↑,
78', Bourabaa A. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Jensen I. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
85', Bourabaa A. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,

Preview

Le Mans is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Lorient has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Le Mans has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:7 (averaging 1.7:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Le Mans against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Lorient	8	3	3	2	7:6	1	12
15	Le Mans	8	1	4	3	11:16	-5	7

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lorient: 0.32% Le Mans: 0.17%

Last Results with these Odds

Le Mans - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 33.27%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 1
13.09.26	Le Mans - Lens	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Nice - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Rennes - Le Mans	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	Le Mans - Brest	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Le Mans - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTLTL
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Lens - Lorient	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Nice - Lorient	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Elversberg - Lorient	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
04.02.20	Lorient - Le Mans	4:2
23.08.19	Le Mans - Lorient	1:2
French Coupe de la Ligue
13.08.19	Lorient - Le Mans	1:2

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