Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Le Mans		Lorient

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.6	Watch
	2.75	3.30	2.55
	2.82	3.3	2.52	Watch
	2.88	3.4	2.61
	2.78	3.4	2.51	Watch
	2.85	3.35	2.55
	2.89	3.43	2.65	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.87)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
33.8%

Draw
28.6%

Lorient
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.7%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28.4%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	44.4%	44.4%

Le Mans - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Lorient will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Kocik N. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 17. Yohou S. (C) 5. Voyer H. 29. Bretelle L. 26. Bamba R. 11. Bourabaa A. 10. Vercruysse J. 76. Larouci Y. 13. Diallo H. 14. Mafouta L.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 20. Sylla D. 3. Talbi M. (C) 32. Adjei N. 77. Katseris P. 8. Cadiou N. 62. Avom A. 43. Kouassi A. 33. Bernardeau G. 17. Makengo J. 18. Balde I.
Substitutes
15. Boisse N. 7. Brahimi B. 22. Calodat L. 25. Gueye D. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 8. Lauray A. 9. Rabillard A. 16. Torrente R. 23. Traore D.	19. Faye S. 2. Georgen A. 10. Jensen I. 21. Kamara B. (G) 42. Kone M. 30. Kuzmic S. 11. Le Bris T. 55. Obaretin N. 95. Toure I.
Coaches
Videira P.	Dujeux A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Bourabaa A. ⚽, Bamba R. (A),
11', Makengo J. 🟨,
17', Katseris P. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
19', Kouassi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Diallo H. 🟨,
57', 2 - 0, Diallo H. ⚽, Bretelle L. (A),
58', Larouci Y. ↓, Calodat L. ↑,
59', Diallo H. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
61', Avom A. 🟨,
65', Bernardeau G. ↓, Faye S. ↑,
65', Balde I. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
72', Bretelle L. ↓, Rabillard A. ↑,
72', Vercruysse J. ↓, Lauray A. ↑,
75', Sidibe D. 🟨,
75', Makengo J. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
75', Adjei N. ↓, Obaretin N. ↑,
78', Bourabaa A. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Jensen I. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
85', Bourabaa A. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,

Preview

Le Mans is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Lorient has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Le Mans has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:7 (averaging 1.7:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Le Mans against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals.

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lorient: 0.35% Le Mans: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9:9	0	6
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Le Mans - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 33.27%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 1
13.09.26	Le Mans - Lens	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Nice - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Rennes - Le Mans	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	Le Mans - Brest	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Le Mans - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTLTL
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Lens - Lorient	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Nice - Lorient	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Elversberg - Lorient	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
04.02.20	Lorient - Le Mans	4:2
23.08.19	Le Mans - Lorient	1:2
French Coupe de la Ligue
13.08.19	Lorient - Le Mans	1:2

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