Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 16

Date: 23 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi (Lecco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 251


	Lecco		Padova

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.1	1.83
	4.1	3.25	1.9
	4.51	3.2	1.91
	4.4	3.21	1.9	Watch
	4	3.2	1.83
	4.23	3.22	1.81	Watch
	4.1	3.25	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↓ (4.92)	3.2 ↓ (3.45)	1.87 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecco
22.1%

Draw
28.7%

Padova
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

26.7%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

25.9%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Padova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecco than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Padova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lecco - Padova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Furlan J. (G) 2. Celjak V. 3. Billong J. 14. Stanga L. 32. Lepore F. 19. Ionita A. 20. Ilari C. 8. Di Gesu E. 80. Kritta M. 11. Galeandro A. 17. Zuberek J.	1. Fortin M. (G) 4. Belli F. 2. Delli Carri F. 5. Perrotta M. 14. Villa L. 6. Crisetig L. 8. Fusi P. 26. Kirwan N. 10. Russini S. 21. Liguori M. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
23. Ceola F. 22. Dalmasso J. (G) 6. Dore S. 12. Fall A. M. (G) 26. Frigerio M. R. 96. Galli G. 28. Louakima C. 77. Mendoza A. 5. Oliva S. G. 10. Rocco D. 25. Sipos L. 21. Tordini M.	33. Bensi N. (G) 15. Bianchi N. 29. Broh J. 17. Capelli A. 11. Cretella C. 72. Faedo C. 30. Favale G. 23. Granata A. 9. Spagnoli A. 73. Targa A. 7. Varas K. 12. Voltan M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Stanga L. 🟨,
29', Di Gesu E. ↓, Frigerio M. R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
59', Russini S. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
60', Zuberek J. ↓, Sipos L. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Liguori M. ⚽,
61', Kritta M. 🟨,
65', Billong J. 🟨,
68', Kritta M. 🟥,
68', 🟥,
75', Kirwan N. 🟨,
76', 0 - 2, Bortolussi M. ⚽,
79', Stanga L. ↓, Louakima C. ↑,
79', Ilari C. ↓, Tordini M. ↑,
83', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
86', Liguori M. ↓, Capelli A. ↑,
89', 0 - 3, Delli Carri F. ⚽,
90', Villa L. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
90', Perrotta M. ↓, Granata A. ↑,
90', Kirwan N. ↓, Faedo C. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B).

Lecco is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Padova is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Padova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Padova is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lecco won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.8:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Lecco won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Lecco 1912
Italian Serie C Group A
16.11.24	Giana Erminio - Lecco	1:0 ✺
09.11.24	Lecco - Virtus Verona	1:1 ✺
04.11.24	Vicenza Virtus - Lecco	1:0 ✺
30.10.24	Lecco - Alcione	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	FeralpiSalò - Lecco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLWL
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie C Group A
11.11.24	Padova - Novara	2:1 ✺
03.11.24	Pergolettese - Padova	1:2 ✺
30.10.24	Padova - Renate	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	AlbinoLeffe - Padova	0:2 ✺
20.10.24	Padova - FeralpiSalò	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
16.04.23	Padova - Lecco	3:1
11.12.22	Lecco - Padova	2:1
16.02.22	Padova - Lecco	2:1
09.10.21	Lecco - Padova	3:2

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