Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 14

Date: 11 November 2024, Monday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, RAI Sport, RAI Sport+, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
World	FIFA+


	Padova		Novara

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.1	7
	1.4	4.2	8
	1.42	4.13	8.43
	1.44	4.01	8.41	Watch
	1.33	4.2	8.5
	1.36	4.1	8.35	Watch
	1.4	4.2	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.51)	4.13 ↑ (3.6)	8.1 ↑ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
66.3%

Draw
22.3%

Novara
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

25.3%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

23.7%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Padova's performance.

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novara than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Padova - Novara Predictions

Users Predictions: Padova will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fortin M. (G) 4. Belli F. 2. Delli Carri F. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 6. Crisetig L. (C) 8. Fusi P. 14. Villa L. 10. Russini S. 19. Valente N. 20. Bortolussi M.	1. Minelli S. (G) 26. Lorenzini F. 79. Lancini E. 28. Cannavaro A. 24. Ghiringhelli L. 99. Basso G. 21. Ranieri R. (C) 72. Agyemang G. 70. Manseri K. 13. Ongaro E. 10. Donadio C.
Substitutes
99. Beccaro A. 15. Bianchi N. 29. Broh J. 22. Carniello M. (G) 13. Crescenzi L. 11. Cretella C. 72. Faedo C. 30. Favale G. 23. Granata A. 26. Kirwan N. 21. Liguori M. 37. Montrone A. 73. Targa A. 7. Varas K. 12. Voltan M. (G)	9. Brkic M. 4. Cancola D. 31. Desjardins A. (G) 90. Ganz S. 7. Gerardini F. 15. Khailoti O. 44. Koblar L. 3. Migliardi F. 23. Morosini L. 12. Negri E. (G) 6. Riccardi D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Bortolussi M. ⚽,
38', Fusi P. 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Capelli A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Manseri K. ↓, Morosini L. ↑,
62', Perrotta M. 🟨,
63', Ranieri R. 🟨,
66', Ghiringhelli L. ↓, Ganz S. ↑,
66', Ranieri R. ↓, Cancola D. ↑,
67', Fusi P. ↓, Cretella C. ↑,
67', Valente N. ↓, Liguori M. ↑,
67', Russini S. ↓, Bianchi N. ↑,
72', Lorenzini F. 🟨,
73', Lancini E. 🟨,
75', 2 - 1, Lorenzini F. ⚽,
85', Capelli A. ↓, Kirwan N. ↑,
89', Kirwan N. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Padova won 4.

Padova in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Novara is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Padova is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Padova to win the game is with odds 1.45.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Padova won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:10 (average 1.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Padova won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:5 (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie C Group A
03.11.24	Pergolettese - Padova	1:2 ✺
30.10.24	Padova - Renate	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	AlbinoLeffe - Padova	0:2 ✺
20.10.24	Padova - FeralpiSalò	0:0 ✺
12.10.24	Giana Erminio - Padova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWTW
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
02.11.24	Novara - Caldiero Terme	3:1 ✺
29.10.24	Novara - Vicenza Virtus	0:0 ✺
25.10.24	Giana Erminio - Novara	2:2 ✺
19.10.24	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	2:0 ✺
11.10.24	Renate - Novara	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
28.01.24	Novara - Padova	0:3
20.09.23	Padova - Novara	2:0
26.02.23	Novara - Padova	1:3
23.10.22	Padova - Novara	1:2
Italian Serie B
15.02.14	Padova - Novara	1:0
14.09.13	Novara - Padova	1:0
27.04.13	Padova - Novara	3:3

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