Match Info

Date: 22 October 2020, Thursday


	Lech Poznań		Benfica

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.75	1.45
	6	4.6	1.5
	6.25	4.6	1.5
	5.8	4.7	1.47
	6.46	4.75	1.49
	6	4.5	1.5
	6.15	5	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.17 ↓ (7.02)	4.7 ↑ (4.54)	1.49 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
15.5%

Draw
20.3%

Benfica
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.4%

20.8%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

12%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-26.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.9%	3.6%	82.5%

Lech Poznań - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (137 of 166 users predict this - 82.53%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.75% – 88.31%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Lech has a chance of round of 32 (31%), has a small chance of round of 16 (9%), has a very small chance of qtrs (3%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Benfica has a good chance of round of 32 (85%), has a good chance of round of 16 (52%), has a chance of qtrs (29%), has a small chance of semis (15%), has a small chance of final (8%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Benfica could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Lech have a series of guest games.

In this match Benfica is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.10.20	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
04.10.20	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.10.20	Charleroi - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
23.09.20	Apollon Limassol - Lech Poznań	0:5 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.20	Lech Poznań - Warta Poznań	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWWWW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
18.10.20	Rio Ave - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Macao Elite League
18.10.20	Benfica - Sporting Macau	6:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.20	Benfica - Farense	3:2 ✺
26.09.20	Benfica - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
Luxembourg National Division
23.09.20	Fola Esch - Benfica	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWWL

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