Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 28

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Strike, Strike
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Lech Poznań		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	5.25	Watch
	1.5	4.55	5.15	Watch
	1.53	4.81	5.47
	1.53	4.83	5.33	Watch
	1.53	4.33	4.8
	1.5	4.6	5.28	Watch
	1.59	3.52	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.59)	4.42 ↑ (3.52)	5.13 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
60.9%

Draw
21%

GKS Katowice
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.1%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

23.9%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lech Poznań's performance.

GKS Katowice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97.2%	0%	2.8%

Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lech (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (35 of 36 users predict this - 97.22%).
Confidence interval (95%): 91.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lech Poznań will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 72. Skrzypczak M. 15. Gurgul M. 8. Gholizadeh A. 43. Kozubal A. 99. Rodriguez P. 14. Bengtsson L. 10. Walemark P. 9. Ishak M. (C)	12. Straczek R. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 14. Olsen M. 23. Wasielewski M. 22. Milewski S. 26. Rasak D. 8. Galan B. 15. Markovic E. 80. Shkurin I. 27. Nowak B.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 53. Dudek S. 20. Gumny R. 11. Hakans D. 24. Jagiello F. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T. 77. Palma L.	11. Blad A. 97. Jirka E. 21. Kokosinski J. 1. Kudla D. (G) 2. Kuusk M. 19. Lukasiak K. 16. Rogala G. 70. Wdowiak M. 10. Wedrychowski M. 99. Zrelak A.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Markovic E. ⚽, Czerwinski A. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
48', 1 - 1, Jedrych A. (Own goal),
53', Walemark P. 🟨,
59', Rodriguez P. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Shkurin I. ⚽,
68', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
68', Bengtsson L. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
68', Walemark P. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
73', Milewski S. ↓, Lukasiak K. ↑,
73', Shkurin I. ↓, Zrelak A. ↑,
73', Galan B. ↓, Jirka E. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Hakans D. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
78', 2 - 3, Markovic E. ⚽,
80', Kozubal A. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
80', 3 - 3, Palma L. ⚽, Gholizadeh A. (A),
90', Czerwinski A. ↓, Wdowiak M. ↑,
90+3', Markovic E. ↓, Wedrychowski M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 7).

Lech is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

GKS Katowice's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

GKS Katowice may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lech is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Lisman K. (Knee Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery)

There will not play in GKS Katowice: Bosch J. (Pelvis Injury) Brod A. (Injury) Kowalczyk M. (Injury) Marzec M. (Knee Injury) Paluszek A. (Knee Injury) Rejczyk F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Jagiello F. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lech won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Lech won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% GKS Katowice: 1.11%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
5	GKS Katowice	9	5	0	4	20:14	6	15

Last Results with these Odds

Lech Poznań - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 55.64%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWWWL
- GKS Katowice
Polish Cup
09.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - GKS Katowice	5:4 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.04.26	GKS Katowice - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Cracovia - GKS Katowice	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - GKS Katowice	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
05.10.25	GKS Katowice - Lech Poznań	0:1
18.05.25	GKS Katowice - Lech Poznań	2:2
23.11.24	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	2:0

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