Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 24

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Strike, Strike
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.7	2.88	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.55
	2.3	3.6	2.72	Watch
	2.33	3.75	3
	2.39	3.71	2.78	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.8
	2.37	3.73	2.77	Watch
	2.57	3.21	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.57)	3.59 ↑ (3.2)	2.74 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
39.6%

Draw
26.1%

Jagiellonia Białystok
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27.9%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

27.2%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	27.3%	36.4%

Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 16.3% – 56.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 11. Mena C. 79. Sezonienko K. 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 44. Konstantopoulos A. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 86. Mazurek B. 7. Pozo A. 11. Imaz J. 77. Szmyt K. 10. Pululu A.
Substitutes
21. Glogowski M. 16. Jaunzems A. 23. Kalahur M. 2. Kludka B. 90. Kurminowski D. 76. Mavraj I. 99. Neugebauer T. 4. Pllana B. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B.	14. Bazdar S. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 23. Montoia G. 19. Nahuel M. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Carver J.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Kapic R. ⚽, Zhelizko I. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', Konstantopoulos A. 🟨,
62', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Nahuel M. ↑,
62', Wdowik B. ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
64', Vojtko M. 🟨,
73', Pululu A. ↓, Bazdar S. ↑,
74', Mena C. ↓, Neugebauer T. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Cirkovic A. ⚽, Dyachuk M. (A),
88', Mazurek B. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
89', Sezonienko K. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
90+2', Sylla Y. 🟨,
90+4', Wojtowicz T. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 0, Cirkovic A. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:30. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.9:1.3).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Jagiellonia: 1.39%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Jagiellonia	9	4	0	5	13:16	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.26	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
23.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Motor Lublin - Lechia Gdańsk	2:3 ✺
06.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Cracovia	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Lech Poznań - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TLWTW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
31.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0
29.03.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:0
21.09.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	3:2
10.04.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0
17.09.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2
11.12.21	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
Polish Cup
21.09.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3

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