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Current Win Probability
Lechia Gdańsk 35.8%
Draw 27.8%
Legia Warsaw 36.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31%
26.9%
42%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30.7%
26.6%
42.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Legia Warsaw might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Legia Warsaw could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
11.1%
11.1%
77.8%
Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Legia will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 50.6% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - Lechia (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH +0.75 - Lechia (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lechia Gdańsk will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 5 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 4. Pllana B. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 79. Sezonienko K. 99. Neugebauer T. 89. Bobcek T.
89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 56. Leszczynski J. 11. Chodyna K. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 22. Elitim J. 19. Vinagre R. 77. Krasniqi E. 18. Nsame J. 20. Zewlakow J.
Substitutes
15. Dyachuk M. 21. Glogowski M. 23. Kalahur M. 2. Kludka B. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 77. Sinkiewicz D. 17. Tsarenko A. 1. Weirauch S. (G)
9. Adamski R. 6. Arreiol H. 14. Colak A. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Kovacik S. 44. Szymanski D. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 82. Urbanski K. 53. Urbanski W.
Coaches
Carver J.
Papszun M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Nsame J. ⚽, Chodyna K. (A),
32', Chodyna K. 🟨,
43', Zhelizko I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Vinagre R. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
61', Krasniqi E. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
61', Zewlakow J. ↓, Kovacik S. ↑,
61', Neugebauer T. ↓, Tsarenko A. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Bobcek T. ⚽, Mena C. (A),
72', Nsame J. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
73', Bobcek T. 🟨,
81', Kapustka B. ↓, Szymanski D. ↑,
87', Zhelizko I. 🟨,
88', Sezonienko K. ↓, Dyachuk M. ↑,
89', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
90', Leszczynski J. 🟨,
90', Rodin M. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 2, Colak A. ⚽,
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 0.
Lechia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Legia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Lechia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Lechia: Jaunzems A.
(Inactive)
Kurminowski D.
(Injury)
Viunnyk B.
(Inactive)
There will not play in Legia: Bichakhchyan V.
(Muscle Injury)
Colak A.
(Inactive)
Goncalves C.
(Inactive)
Reca A.
(Injury)
Stojanovic P.
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Legia: Adamski R.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:33. (average 1:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).
Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now
Legia: 13.85%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Legia
9
5
4
0
19:8
11
19
Last Results with these Odds
Lechia Gdańsk - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 31.05%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.
Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 42.04%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.
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Paulsen A. (G) 
Wojtowicz T. 
Pllana B. 
Rodin M. 
Vojtko M. 
Mena C. 
Kapic R. (C) 
Zhelizko I. 
Hindrich O. (G) 
Vinagre R. 
Krasniqi E. 
Nsame J. 
Carver J. 
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