What is the expert prediction for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, August 31, 2025)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, SuperSport 4
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Astro Premier League, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Pro TV, Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	Hub Premier 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Palace TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fubo Sports Network, NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC, USA Network
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+ Sport 1, K+, TV 360
World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Aston Villa		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.7
	1.85	3.5	4.33
	2	3.5	3.9
	2.08	3.5	3.92
	2.08	3.40	3.47	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	2.03	3.6	3.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.83)	3.49 ↓ (3.58)	3.92 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
48.2%

Draw
27.4%

Crystal Palace
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

26.7%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

29.6%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Crystal Palace has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aston Villa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crystal Palace, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.2%	20%	13.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 43 - 68.3%). Crystal Palace will win (votes: 9 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 17.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 56.8% – 79.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 14 - 56%). Crystal Palace (votes: 6 - 24%). Tie (votes: 5 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Crystal Palace (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Crystal Palace (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 14 - 51.9%). Crystal Palace (votes: 8 - 29.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 7. McGinn J. (C) 8. Tielemans Y. 29. Guessand E. 27. Rogers M. 17. Malen D. 11. Watkins O.	1. Henderson D. (G) 26. Richards C. 5. Lacroix M. 6. Guehi M. (C) 2. Munoz D. 20. Wharton A. 19. Hughes W. 3. Mitchell T. 7. Sarr I. 14. Mateta J. 18. Kamada D.
Substitutes
26. Bogarde L. 10. Buendia E. 83. Burrowes B. 12. Digne L. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 55. Patterson T. 52. Proctor S. (G) 45. Rowe T. 14. Torres P.	44. Benitez W. (G) 59. Cardines R. 17. Clyne N. 55. Devenny J. 21. Esse R. 8. Lerma J. 10. Pino Y. 42. Rodney K. 24. Sosa B.
Coaches
Emery U.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Cash M. 🟨,
20', Bizot M. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Mateta J. (Pen),
22', Mateta J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Guessand E. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
52', Hughes W. 🟨,
56', Wharton A. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
68', 0 - 2, Guehi M. ⚽,
71', Hughes W. ↓, Pino Y. ↑,
74', Cash M. ↓, Burrowes B. ↑,
74', McGinn J. ↓, Torres P. ↑,
78', 0 - 3, Sarr I. ⚽, Lacroix M. (A),
83', Malen D. ↓, Digne L. ↑,
84', Maatsen I. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
85', Mateta J. ↓, Devenny J. ↑,
86', Kamada D. ↓, Clyne N. ↑,
87', Sarr I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 0.

Recent performances by Aston Villa have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Crystal Palace is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aston Villa is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Brannigan C. (Injury) Garcia A. (Knock) Kamara B. (Hamstring Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Edouard O. (Calf Injury) Kporha C. (Back Injury) Nketiah E. (Hamstring Injury) Riad C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Crystal Palace: Hughes W. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.4:0.7).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Villarreal - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
06.08.25	Aston Villa - Roma	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTWLW
- Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Fredrikstad - Crystal Palace	0:0 ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Crystal Palace - Fredrikstad	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
17.08.25	Chelsea - Crystal Palace	0:0 ✺
English FA Community Shield
10.08.25	Crystal Palace - Liverpool	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
26.04.25	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	3:0
English Premier League
25.02.25	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	4:1
23.11.24	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	2:2
English League Cup
30.10.24	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	1:2
English Premier League
19.05.24	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	5:0
16.09.23	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	3:1
04.03.23	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	1:0

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