Match Info

Premier League - Round 36

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
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Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
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Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
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France	CANAL+ France
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 7, WOW
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India	Disney+ Hotstar
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Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport MIX
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Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Burnley		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.2	1.57
	5.25	4.1	1.61
	5.9	4.25	1.58
	5.9	4.35	1.57
	5.8	4.2	1.61	Watch
	5	4	1.57
	5.94	4.37	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.61 ↑ (5.15)	4.21 ↑ (4.13)	1.59 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
17.1%

Draw
22.7%

Aston Villa
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

23%

58.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

22.6%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.4%	10.3%	86.2%

Burnley - Aston Villa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.80) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (50 of 56 users predict this - 89.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.19% – 97.39%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 12 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Weiss M. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 6. Tuanzebe A. 5. Esteve M. 23. Lucas Pires 16. Florentino 8. Ugochukwu L. 17. Tchaouna L. 28. Mejbri H. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 3. Lindelof V. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 6. Barkley R. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
25. Amdouni Z. 27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 1. Dubravka M. (G) 9. Foster L. 3. Hartman Q. 12. Humphreys B. 29. Laurent J. 20. Ward-Prowse J.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 10. Buendia E. 12. Digne L. 21. Douglas Luiz 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P.
Coaches
Jackson M.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Anthony J. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Barkley R. ⚽, McGinn J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Mings T. 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Watkins O. ⚽, Martinez E. (A),
59', 2 - 2, Flemming Z. ⚽, Mejbri H. (A),
60', Flemming Z. 🟨,
69', Mejbri H. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
74', Maatsen I. ↓, Digne L. ↑,
74', Lindelof V. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
79', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
80', Flemming Z. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
80', Barkley R. ↓, Douglas Luiz ↑,
80', Cash M. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
85', McGinn J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
87', Anthony J. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
88', Florentino ↓, Ward-Prowse J. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Burnley is Relegated to Championship

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 0.

Burnley has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Aston Villa has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aston Villa is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Roberts C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Muscle Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Onana A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.4:2.2).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.68%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
01.05.26	Leeds United - Burnley	3:1 ✺
22.04.26	Burnley - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	4:1 ✺
11.04.26	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Fulham - Burnley	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
03.05.26	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
25.04.26	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Aston Villa - Sunderland	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
05.10.25	Aston Villa - Burnley	2:1
30.12.23	Aston Villa - Burnley	3:2
27.08.23	Burnley - Aston Villa	1:3
19.05.22	Aston Villa - Burnley	1:1
07.05.22	Burnley - Aston Villa	1:3
27.01.21	Burnley - Aston Villa	3:2
17.12.20	Aston Villa - Burnley	0:0

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