Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 33

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Motor Lublin		Cracovia

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.5	2.3	Watch
	2.72	3.35	2.38	Watch
	2.99	3.5	2.47
	2.99	3.27	2.44	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.3
	2.88	3.32	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.45)	3.41 ↑ (3.33)	2.38 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
33%

Draw
27.5%

Cracovia
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

27.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

27.1%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cracovia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Motor Lublin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cracovia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	58.3%	16.7%

Motor Lublin - Cracovia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Cracovia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Tratnik G. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 3. Matthys H. 24. Luberecki F. 68. Wolski B. (C) 6. Samper S. 7. Rodrigues I. 30. Ndiaye M. 9. Czubak K. 19. van Hoeven B.	13. Madejski S. (G) 79. Pila D. 66. Wojcik O. 21. Sutalo B. 39. Perkovic M. 43. Klich M. (C) 6. Al Ammari A. 20. Knap K. 14. Hasic A. 18. Zahiroleslam K. 11. Sans P.
Substitutes
77. Dadashov R. 11. Fabio Ronaldo 10. Karasek K. 99. Kukulski P. (G) 21. Labojko J. 2. Meyer P. 29. Santos T. 8. Scalet M. 17. Wojcik F.	29. Batoum J. 9. Bogacz W. 99. Charpentier G. 10. Dominguez M. 15. Glik K. 91. Golonka K. (G) 25. Kakabadze O. 70. Kameri D. 27. Ravas H. (G) 19. Tabisz M. 61. Traore B.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Grzelak B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Klich M. ⚽,
14', Rodrigues I. 🟨,
20', Sans P. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Czubak K. ⚽, Wolski B. (A),
41', Pila D. 🟨,
44', Knap K. 🟨,
45', Samper S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', Wojcik O. 🟨,
58', Sans P. ↓, Kameri D. ↑,
58', Zahiroleslam K. ↓, Charpentier G. ↑,
58', Samper S. ↓, Labojko J. ↑,
58', Rodrigues I. ↓, Karasek K. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Al Ammari A. ⚽, Charpentier G. (A),
65', Stolarski P. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
65', van Hoeven B. ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,
67', Knap K. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
76', Hasic A. 🟨,
78', Ndiaye M. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Charpentier G. ⚽, Hasic A. (A),
88', 2 - 3, Czubak K. ⚽, Wojcik F. (A),
90+1', 3 - 3, Karasek K. ⚽, Wolski B. (A),
90+3', Hasic A. ↓, Batoum J. ↑,
90+3', Klich M. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 12 and 14)

Motor is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cracovia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Motor: Brkic I. (Ribs Injury) Najemski A. (Yellow Cards) Plichta K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cracovia: Henriksson G. (Yellow Cards) Kakabadze O. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Minchev M. (Yellow Cards) Praszelik M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Motor won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Motor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Cracovia: 0.73% Motor Lublin: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Cracovia	10	3	2	5	12:15	-3	11
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Last Results with these Odds

Motor Lublin - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.77%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Cracovia - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.4%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.05.26	Wisła Płock - Motor Lublin	0:4 ✺
02.05.26	Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Widzew Łódź - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Motor Lublin - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLLT
- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.05.26	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Cracovia - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Cracovia - Arka Gdynia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
22.11.25	Cracovia - Motor Lublin	1:2
26.04.25	Motor Lublin - Cracovia	0:1
26.10.24	Cracovia - Motor Lublin	6:2

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