Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 28

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Bulgaria	Diema Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	K Sport 2
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 4 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+


	Lens		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4.4	5.75
	1.6	4.4	4.9	Watch
	1.61	4.25	5.15	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6
	1.64	4.43	5.56	Watch
	1.6	4.4	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.63)	4.3 ↑ (4.11)	5.39 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lens
60.3%

Draw
22.1%

Saint-Étienne
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

23.2%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

21.9%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	3.1%	5.2%

Lens - Saint Étienne Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Lens (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - Saint-Étienne (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lens will win (87 of 94 users predict this - 92.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.24% – 97.86%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Lens (votes: 16 - 88.9%). Saint-Étienne (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ryan M. (G) 27. Juma Bah A. 20. Sarr M. 14. Medina F. 2. Aguilar R. 18. Diouf A. 23. El Aynaoui N. 3. Machado D. 7. Sotoca F. (C) 28. Thomasson A. 22. Said W.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 27. Macon Y. 13. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 6. Bouchouari B. 4. Ekwah P. 10. Tardieu F. 7. Cardona I. 32. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.
Substitutes
32. Antonio K. 4. Celik N. 11. Fulgini A. 16. Koffi H. (G) 19. Koyalipou G. 26. Mendy N. 15. Ojediran H. 21. Zaroury A.	5. Abdelhamid Y. 8. Appiah D. 21. Batubinsika D. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 29. Moueffek A. 14. Mouton L. 63. N'Guessan D. 11. Old B. 25. Wadji I.
Coaches
Still W.	Horneland E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Machado D. 🟨,
30', Medina F. 🟨,
32', Macon Y. 🟨,
45+5', Cardona I. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Tardieu F. ↓, Moueffek A. ↑,
65', Bouchouari B. 🟨,
66', Said W. ↓, Koyalipou G. ↑,
66', Sotoca F. ↓, Zaroury A. ↑,
68', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Old B. ↑,
68', Cardona I. ↓, Wadji I. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Koyalipou G. ⚽, Machado D. (A),
79', Aguilar R. ↓, Antonio K. ↑,
86', Machado D. ↓, Ojediran H. ↑,
86', Diouf A. ↓, Fulgini A. ↑,
87', Petrot L. ↓, Abdelhamid Y. ↑,
87', Ojediran H. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lens won 4.

Recent matches Lens is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Saint-Étienne is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lens could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lens is a favorite.

There will not play in Lens: Gradit J. (Face Injury) Jhoanner Chavez (Ankle Injury) Labeau Lascary R. (Knee Injury) Satriano M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Boakye A. (Ankle Injury) Miladinovic I. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Lens: Juma Bah A. (Tooth injury) Petric D. (Back Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Lens won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:11 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lens won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:5 (average 0.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
30.03.25	Lille - Lens	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Lens - Rennes	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Lens - Le Havre	3:4 ✺
23.02.25	Nantes - Lens	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWWLL
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
29.03.25	Saint-Étienne - Paris Saint-Germain	1:6 ✺
09.03.25	Le Havre - Saint-Étienne	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Saint-Étienne - Nice	1:3 ✺
22.02.25	Saint-Étienne - Angers	3:3 ✺
15.02.25	Olympique Marseille - Saint-Étienne	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.10.24	Saint-Étienne - Lens	0:2
15.01.22	Saint-Étienne - Lens	1:2
15.08.21	Lens - Saint-Étienne	2:2
03.03.21	Saint-Étienne - Lens	2:3
03.10.20	Lens - Saint-Étienne	2:0
Club Friendly
21.07.18	Lens - Saint-Étienne	0:1
French Ligue 1
06.02.15	Saint-Étienne - Lens	3:3

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