Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Leones del Norte		Chacaritas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	4.3	8.4
	1.35	4.37	8.84
	1.38	4.28	9.36	Watch
	1.36	4	10
	1.32	4.25	9.4	Watch
	1.34	4.3	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.59)	4.25 ↑ (3.4)	9.07 ↑ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
68.2%

Draw
21.6%

Chacaritas
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

26.9%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

26%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leones del Norte's performance.

Chacaritas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chacaritas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacaritas than the current prediction. (+5%)

Leones del Norte - Chacaritas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Leones del Norte (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 1 - 0, Ibarra T. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: )).

Recent performances by Leones del Norte have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chacaritas is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Leones del Norte is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones del Norte won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.04.25	Independiente Juniors - Leones del Norte	1:0 ✺
23.04.25	Leones del Norte - Atlético Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Vargas Torres - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
09.04.25	Leones del Norte - Cumbayá	1:1 ✺
02.04.25	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWTTT
- Chacaritas FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
30.04.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Chacaritas	4:0 ✺
24.04.25	Chacaritas - Guayaquil City	1:1 ✺
15.04.25	Independiente Juniors - Chacaritas	3:1 ✺
09.04.25	Chacaritas - San Antonio	0:0 ✺
03.04.25	Vargas Torres - Chacaritas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
29.10.24	Leones del Norte - Chacaritas	2:0
10.07.24	Chacaritas - Leones del Norte	2:1
19.06.24	Leones del Norte - Chacaritas	2:0
01.05.24	Chacaritas - Leones del Norte	2:0

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