Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 9

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Leones del Norte		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.35	3	2.15	Watch
	3.79	3.09	2.19
	3.55	3.19	2.14	Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.05
	3.58	3.24	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.91)	3.1 ↑ (3.09)	2.11 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
26.4%

Draw
29.8%

SD Aucas
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

30.2%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

29.7%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones del Norte's form might have worsened.

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting SD Aucas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones del Norte, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Leones del Norte - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Leones del Norte will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Aucas will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aucas: 62.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aucas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 32. Aguas A. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 34. Portocarrero S. 11. Caramuto M. 8. Velez C. 6. Griffa E. 17. Mairongo J. 19. Pepinos E. 40. Anangono J. (C)	13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 2. Morales S. 28. Quinonez R. 6. Spina A. L. 33. Porozo S. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 29. Arroyo L. 10. Preciado E.
Substitutes
22. Arroyo J. (G) 4. Arroyo R. 55. Borja R. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 27. Caicedo Nestor 16. De La Cruz M. 20. Mendez M. 70. Micolta S. 44. Mina K. 99. Solano C. 3. Vargas F.	11. Bolanos R. 52. Caicedo J. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 91. Luna D. 55. Olaya V. 5. Serpa T. 89. Sosa A. 57. Vera M.
Coaches
Mendez E.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Moran J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Griffa E. ↓, Borja R. ↑,
54', Gustavino L. 🟨,
60', Quinonez R. 🟨,
71', Preciado E. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
76', Portocarrero S. 🟨,
77', Porozo S. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Quinonez R. ⚽, Morales S. (A),
83', Caramuto M. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
83', Mairongo J. ↓, Solano C. ↑,
83', Aguas A. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
85', Pepinos E. ↓, Mina K. ↑,
90+1', Mena A. ↓, Serpa T. ↑,
90+2', Arroyo L. ↓, Olaya V. ↑,
90+6', Arroyo R. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

Leones del Norte has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aucas is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Leones del Norte - Delfín	1:0 ✺
23.03.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	0:0 ✺
17.03.26	Leones del Norte - LDU Quito	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWTLT
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	SD Aucas - Emelec	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Deportivo Macará - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
23.03.26	SD Aucas - Orense	3:2 ✺
19.03.26	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWLT

Upcoming Matches