Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 8

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Emelec

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.35	4.25	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.7
	1.8	3.52	4.44	Watch
	1.83	3	4
	1.87	3.26	4.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.03)	3.3 ↓ (3.48)	4.36 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
50.8%

Draw
28%

Emelec
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.8%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

26.1%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Emelec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Emelec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

SD Aucas - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 2. Morales S. 6. Spina A. L. 29. Arroyo L. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 89. Sosa A. 7. Miranda B.	12. Ortiz P. (C) 14. Caicedo R. 16. Quintero S. 51. Valencia S. 3. Guerrico I. 80. Herrera O. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 8. Napoli G. 9. Neris J. 10. Pizzini F.
Substitutes
1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 99. Japa E. 91. Luna D. 33. Porozo S. 10. Preciado E. 28. Quinonez R. 5. Serpa T. 14. Tapiero S.	23. Bolanos M. 18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 20. Gonzaga J. 7. Klimowicz L. 30. Mina A. 24. Narvaez R. 19. Ruiz J. 28. Tobar B. 1. Valero M. (G) 25. Viteri A.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Sanchez V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Guzman P. 🟨,
6', Napoli G. 🟥,
13', Arroyo L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sosa A. ↓, Preciado E. ↑,
52', Zova A. 🟨,
62', Herrera O. ↓, Bolanos M. ↑,
63', Neris J. ↓, Klimowicz L. ↑,
69', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
69', Arroyo L. ↓, Quinonez R. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Quinonez R. ⚽, Spina A. L. (A),
73', Pizzini F. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽, Morales S. (A),
83', Miranda B. ↓, Porozo S. ↑,
83', Mina A. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
84', Guerrico I. ↓, Viteri A. ↑,
89', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
90+1', Tapiero S. ↓, Espinosa D. S. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Aucas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aucas is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.04.26	Deportivo Macará - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
23.03.26	SD Aucas - Orense	3:2 ✺
19.03.26	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLTL
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Emelec - Orense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.11.25	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2
19.10.25	SD Aucas - Emelec	0:0
30.08.25	SD Aucas - Emelec	1:2
11.05.25	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:1
06.10.24	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:0
19.04.24	SD Aucas - Emelec	3:1
02.09.23	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:0

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