Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	San Antonio		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	1.58	3.85	5.43	Watch
	2.93	2.86	2.65
	2.48	2.84	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.68)	3.18 ↑ (2.85)	3.67 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Antonio
42.2%

Draw
30.9%

Leones del Norte
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

31.6%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

31.3%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Antonio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Antonio's performance.

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leones del Norte might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Antonio than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Antonio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leones del Norte could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

San Antonio - Leones del Norte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Yepez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
77', 1 - 1, Caramuto M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Antonio won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Leones del Norte may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, San Antonio won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, San Antonio won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Antonio Ibarra FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
11.09.25	Guayaquil City - San Antonio	1:0 ✺
02.09.25	San Antonio - 9 de Octubre	2:2 ✺
27.08.25	San Antonio - Independiente Juniors	1:4 ✺
17.08.25	Independiente Juniors - San Antonio	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
13.08.25	San Antonio - Manta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTLTW
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Serie B
11.09.25	Leones del Norte - Gualaceo	1:2 ✺
03.09.25	Independiente Juniors - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
21.08.25	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
15.08.25	Leones del Norte - Imbabura	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
10.08.25	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	1:2
27.05.25	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	1:0
17.09.24	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	0:1
30.07.24	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	0:0
12.06.24	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	0:1
24.04.24	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	0:1

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